BTC - Next Step
Ok - I neutralized my portfolio. I'm 90% in USDT. The 10% I have in core positions are balanced by leveraged shorts in ADA and ETH.
Long Term: I've said that I believe this is a relief rally and not the big one. Summary:
1. Addresses >1,000 BTC are not being generated - this metric has not been wrong
2. Monthly chart shows we are probably in the B wave of an ABC correction to the big bull market
3. Daily RSI divergence. The daily RSI is making lower highs while price is increasing.
4. Price has not broken the .618 fib - its a dead cat bounce to me until it holds the .618
Short Term: I'm bullish as heck. I intend to ride this B Wave for all its worth
1. Price is in a rising daily channel
2. Price is above the 200 dma
3. Price is above the 20 week ema ribbon
4. The daily ema ribbon flipped positive
5. The weekly MACD has crossed green (this is a very significant positive)
There have been some very big gains off the bottom, and my short term perspective is still bullish. The price didnt hit my target of 51.1K which is the .618 fib, but it was inevitable that price would correct. I spent a lot of time watching price action this weekend and there was just more sellers than there were buyers willing to take positions above 50K. I waited until Monday to make my final decision, but I had the same observations on Monday. So what is my next move?
There are a lot of key support levels coming into play between 46-47K (lower channel support, .5 fib, 20 week sma, and 200 dma). Derivatives are also developing in expectation of this as well. Market sentiment is still very positive. The overall stock market and DXY support the risk-on crypto markets. I plan on covering my short positions and putting 25% of my portfolio back in around 46-47K. I'll probably split those between BTC, ADA and ETH. I'll add another 25% if the bounce off any of those supports has strong volume. I'm particularly looking for ADA to hit 3.39 and ETH to break out of its consolidation and move towards 6K. The market may go down, but I dont want to miss it going up when all lights are flashing green.
PS: I feel very strong about my long term bearish analysis, BUT I can not ignore the history behind the weekly MACD turning positive. I have to do more work to fully agree with this, but on first glance its a very very bullish long term indicator of rising prices to come. As a trader, I've come to terms with having a long term vision that opposes to the short term one making money.
Long Term: I've said that I believe this is a relief rally and not the big one. Summary:
1. Addresses >1,000 BTC are not being generated - this metric has not been wrong
2. Monthly chart shows we are probably in the B wave of an ABC correction to the big bull market
3. Daily RSI divergence. The daily RSI is making lower highs while price is increasing.
4. Price has not broken the .618 fib - its a dead cat bounce to me until it holds the .618
Short Term: I'm bullish as heck. I intend to ride this B Wave for all its worth
1. Price is in a rising daily channel
2. Price is above the 200 dma
3. Price is above the 20 week ema ribbon
4. The daily ema ribbon flipped positive
5. The weekly MACD has crossed green (this is a very significant positive)
There have been some very big gains off the bottom, and my short term perspective is still bullish. The price didnt hit my target of 51.1K which is the .618 fib, but it was inevitable that price would correct. I spent a lot of time watching price action this weekend and there was just more sellers than there were buyers willing to take positions above 50K. I waited until Monday to make my final decision, but I had the same observations on Monday. So what is my next move?
There are a lot of key support levels coming into play between 46-47K (lower channel support, .5 fib, 20 week sma, and 200 dma). Derivatives are also developing in expectation of this as well. Market sentiment is still very positive. The overall stock market and DXY support the risk-on crypto markets. I plan on covering my short positions and putting 25% of my portfolio back in around 46-47K. I'll probably split those between BTC, ADA and ETH. I'll add another 25% if the bounce off any of those supports has strong volume. I'm particularly looking for ADA to hit 3.39 and ETH to break out of its consolidation and move towards 6K. The market may go down, but I dont want to miss it going up when all lights are flashing green.
PS: I feel very strong about my long term bearish analysis, BUT I can not ignore the history behind the weekly MACD turning positive. I have to do more work to fully agree with this, but on first glance its a very very bullish long term indicator of rising prices to come. As a trader, I've come to terms with having a long term vision that opposes to the short term one making money.
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