Bitcoin / TetherUSUpdated BITCOIN (BTC/XBT) DAILY LONG&SHORT TRADE SETUPS 2020/12/30
MARKET OVERVIEW
TRADE(S) RECAP
There wasn't a trade yesterday, but 2 days ago we had a successful trade that gave us a 3:1 Risk Reward Ratio, meaning you could've made 3BTC for every BTC risked.
TRADE SETUPS
Below are three potential trade setups. Given the bullish bias, the most likely scenario is "Long Trade Setup #1: Breakout and Continuation", but regardless of the path that the price takes, I will be monitoring the market for a valid trade entry signal.
Long Trade Setup #1: Breakout and Continuation
To open a long position, we are waiting for price to break resistance, move back down to test previous resistance as support and then bounce back up.
Trade Entry Confirmation:
1. Price Action: Price breaks above the high of 28.4K with force, creating space between the price and 28.4K, falls back down to 28.4K and bounce back up.
2. Candlestick Pattern: A bullish candlestick pattern such as a bullish engulfing candle, a pinbar , or a multiple candlestick breakdown (a large red candle followed by multiple green candles that eventually close above the open/high of the large red candle)
2.1 Ideally Engulfing / Break candle has a large candle body with small wicks
2.2 Ideally Engulfing /Break candle closes near the highs of the candle
3. Volume: Above average volume on the bullish engulfing candle, pinbar , or on any of the multiple green candles that eventually break the red candle (ideally on the candle that breaks)
4. MACD: MACD histogram bottoming out, as indicated by the histogram becoming less negative (changing from red to pink)
Long Trade Setup #2: Retest and Continuation (200MAs)
To open a long position, we are waiting for price to retrace back down to test the 200MAs and then continue moving up.
Trade Entry Confirmation:
1. Price Action: Price needs to move back down to the 200MAs and bounce. 200MAs are currently sitting at ~
27K, but will move as price moves.
2. Candlestick Pattern: A bullish candlestick pattern such as a bullish engulfing candle, a pinbar, or a multiple candlestick breakdown (a large red candle followed by multiple green candles that eventually close above the open/high of the large red candle)
3. Volume: Above average volume on the bullish engulfing candle, pinbar, or on any of the multiple green candles that eventually break the red candle (ideally on the candle that breaks)
4. MACD: MACD histogram bottoming out, as indicated by the histogram becoming less negative (changing from red to pink)
Short Trade Setup: False Breakout
To open a short position, we are waiting for price to break above the horizontal resistance @ 28.4K and then fall back down.
Trade Entry Confirmation:
1. Price Action: Price breaks above the high of 28.4K and then rapidly falls below 28.4K, forming a bull trap
2. Candlestick Pattern: A breakout candlestick (candle close above 28.4K) followed by a breakdown candlestick (candle close below 28.4K)
2.1 Ideally breakout and breakdown candlesticks are consecutive candles, but can also have a few candles in between the two
2.2 Ideally the breakdown candle has a large candle body with very small wicks
3. Volume: Above average volume ( volume above the average volume line) on both breakout candle and breakdown candle, ideally the breakdown candle's volume is a local high
4. MACD: MACD histogram topping out, as indicated by the histogram becoming less positive (color changing from dark green to light green)
Entry Confirmations:
Ideally we get all confirmations for an entry, but sometimes we might take a trade when we have fewer confirmations. The more confirmations, the higher the win probability, though it also means you miss out on some profitable trades if you're only taking trades when we have all confirmations. It's up to your own risk appetite to decide when you feel comfortable entering a trade. You can also adjust position size based on level of conviction, entering a bigger position when there are more confirmations. Make sure you practice proper risk management and money management.
Trade Management:
I have put in preliminary Stop Loss and Take Profit on the chart, but these will depend on how the entry setup forms, so I will update when we have a valid entry signal.
Stop Loss: We typically put a SL around the high / low of the entry area, though we might adjust based on market conditions such as high ATR ( average true range ) or long wicks.
Take Profit: We typically aim for at least a 2:1 RRR (risk reward ratio), but you can decide to take profits earlier, adjust stop loss as we get into profit, take partial profit, leave a small portion for larger gains, etc. How you want to manage depends on your own risk appetite and what you are comfortable with.
MAKE SURE YOU FOLLOW ME SO THAT YOU DONT MISS TRADE SIGNALS, GET THE LATEST SL AND TP LEVELS, AND FOLLOW THE TRADE PLAY OUT IN REAL TIME!
DISCLAIMER: I'M NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND I WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR WINS OR LOSSES, DYOR.
Sorry for the late post today, had to go to the hospital. Thanks for your support. Feel free to ask any questions, and please let me know how I can improve these daily posts / what you would like me to include in these daily posts, thanks.
- After BTC established a new ATH @ 28.4K, price retraced to a low of 25.7K, and is now back up @ around 28K and consolidating near the highs, indicating a high likelikhood of a pending breakout. Therefore, we have a slight bull bias right now, but should price fail to break 28.4K, we need to be ready for a potentially big correction.
- The main levels immediately significant on the charts that we want to focus on are the All-Time-High of 28.4K and the 200MAs @~27K.Once price reaches one of our areas of interest and gives us a valid entry signal, I will update the trade, so make sure you follow to get the trade entry signals in real time.
TRADE(S) RECAP
There wasn't a trade yesterday, but 2 days ago we had a successful trade that gave us a 3:1 Risk Reward Ratio, meaning you could've made 3BTC for every BTC risked.
TRADE SETUPS
Below are three potential trade setups. Given the bullish bias, the most likely scenario is "Long Trade Setup #1: Breakout and Continuation", but regardless of the path that the price takes, I will be monitoring the market for a valid trade entry signal.
Long Trade Setup #1: Breakout and Continuation
To open a long position, we are waiting for price to break resistance, move back down to test previous resistance as support and then bounce back up.
Trade Entry Confirmation:
1. Price Action: Price breaks above the high of 28.4K with force, creating space between the price and 28.4K, falls back down to 28.4K and bounce back up.
2. Candlestick Pattern: A bullish candlestick pattern such as a bullish engulfing candle, a pinbar , or a multiple candlestick breakdown (a large red candle followed by multiple green candles that eventually close above the open/high of the large red candle)
2.1 Ideally Engulfing / Break candle has a large candle body with small wicks
2.2 Ideally Engulfing /Break candle closes near the highs of the candle
3. Volume: Above average volume on the bullish engulfing candle, pinbar , or on any of the multiple green candles that eventually break the red candle (ideally on the candle that breaks)
4. MACD: MACD histogram bottoming out, as indicated by the histogram becoming less negative (changing from red to pink)
Long Trade Setup #2: Retest and Continuation (200MAs)
To open a long position, we are waiting for price to retrace back down to test the 200MAs and then continue moving up.
Trade Entry Confirmation:
1. Price Action: Price needs to move back down to the 200MAs and bounce. 200MAs are currently sitting at ~
27K, but will move as price moves.2. Candlestick Pattern: A bullish candlestick pattern such as a bullish engulfing candle, a pinbar, or a multiple candlestick breakdown (a large red candle followed by multiple green candles that eventually close above the open/high of the large red candle)
3. Volume: Above average volume on the bullish engulfing candle, pinbar, or on any of the multiple green candles that eventually break the red candle (ideally on the candle that breaks)
4. MACD: MACD histogram bottoming out, as indicated by the histogram becoming less negative (changing from red to pink)
Short Trade Setup: False Breakout
To open a short position, we are waiting for price to break above the horizontal resistance @ 28.4K and then fall back down.
Trade Entry Confirmation:
1. Price Action: Price breaks above the high of 28.4K and then rapidly falls below 28.4K, forming a bull trap
2. Candlestick Pattern: A breakout candlestick (candle close above 28.4K) followed by a breakdown candlestick (candle close below 28.4K)
2.1 Ideally breakout and breakdown candlesticks are consecutive candles, but can also have a few candles in between the two
2.2 Ideally the breakdown candle has a large candle body with very small wicks
3. Volume: Above average volume ( volume above the average volume line) on both breakout candle and breakdown candle, ideally the breakdown candle's volume is a local high
4. MACD: MACD histogram topping out, as indicated by the histogram becoming less positive (color changing from dark green to light green)
Entry Confirmations:
Ideally we get all confirmations for an entry, but sometimes we might take a trade when we have fewer confirmations. The more confirmations, the higher the win probability, though it also means you miss out on some profitable trades if you're only taking trades when we have all confirmations. It's up to your own risk appetite to decide when you feel comfortable entering a trade. You can also adjust position size based on level of conviction, entering a bigger position when there are more confirmations. Make sure you practice proper risk management and money management.
Trade Management:
I have put in preliminary Stop Loss and Take Profit on the chart, but these will depend on how the entry setup forms, so I will update when we have a valid entry signal.
Stop Loss: We typically put a SL around the high / low of the entry area, though we might adjust based on market conditions such as high ATR ( average true range ) or long wicks.
Take Profit: We typically aim for at least a 2:1 RRR (risk reward ratio), but you can decide to take profits earlier, adjust stop loss as we get into profit, take partial profit, leave a small portion for larger gains, etc. How you want to manage depends on your own risk appetite and what you are comfortable with.
MAKE SURE YOU FOLLOW ME SO THAT YOU DONT MISS TRADE SIGNALS, GET THE LATEST SL AND TP LEVELS, AND FOLLOW THE TRADE PLAY OUT IN REAL TIME!
DISCLAIMER: I'M NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND I WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR WINS OR LOSSES, DYOR.
Sorry for the late post today, had to go to the hospital. Thanks for your support. Feel free to ask any questions, and please let me know how I can improve these daily posts / what you would like me to include in these daily posts, thanks.
Note
Price in our area of interest. Monitoring to see if we have a valid entry signal. Follow and stayed tuned so you dont miss the trade entry signal.Note
Did not get a clear short signal. while we did close below 28.4k, the candle that did so had a long lower wick, indicating bullish bias, and macd histogram didnt top out but rather increased. Staying aside for now until we have a clearer signal. protecting your principle is the most important thing. and better to wish you were in a trade that you werent than to wish you werent in a trade that you were.Note
Pretty big rejection here. Came close to calling a short, but decided against it because confirmations weren’t there. There’s always another trade, the key is not to have a last trade.Note
What I’m looking for now is for price to either move down to 200MAs @27K or up to new ATH @28.6K to see if we get a trade entry.Note
Price is in our area of interest testing ATH. Will monitor for potential trade entry.
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Youtube Video Analysis: youtube.com/channel/UCPwR8Rv2YVI7qZIhedX7pQw
Youtube Video Analysis: youtube.com/channel/UCPwR8Rv2YVI7qZIhedX7pQw
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Telegram Community: t.me/joinchat/RbV9ZyWrlQiKOhCw
Youtube Video Analysis: youtube.com/channel/UCPwR8Rv2YVI7qZIhedX7pQw
Youtube Video Analysis: youtube.com/channel/UCPwR8Rv2YVI7qZIhedX7pQw
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.