BTC 1D OUTLOOK
Updated
Bitcoin is in a tricky place right now. The fear and greed index has cooled off massively and now sits at a neutral score of 55. General sentiment is very poor and after nearly 2 months of sideways action traders/investors are getting restless especially after the promise of price rally post-halving, but is there any positive news?
The chart is pretty clear, HTF is bullish, still above the 1D 200EMA but LTF is bearish. BTC has clearly broken its uptrend and is now in a bearish trend channel, although there has been a breakout attempt, for now it seems to be a fakeout. For me this leaves 2 scenarios;
- Trigger 1 is a breakout trade where confirmation is needed to avoid another fakeout, this includes making a higher high after a new lower high and therefor confirming a new bullish structure after breaking out of the bearish channel.
- Trigger 2 is more of a bearish scenario but one I believe would be better in the long run. There is a large inefficiency area between 52K-56.5K, price seeks to fill these fair value gaps and as long as that area is left unfilled it will always attract price to it, now this could be filled at anytime in BTC's lifespan but it would make the most sense to do it now rather than after price has another huge rally as the risk of a complete capitulation move down to fill this area would grow. Another reason I believe it makes the most sense is that the 1D 200 EMA is at the bullish OB+ level, in a Bullrun this level is a great point to enter longs as it provides strong support. Adding all these layers of confluence suggests this bullish OB+ area should it provide a positive reaction, would be a good area to enter longs which also would mean the altcoin market would also see a positive move as it is currently massively oversold and would bring traders to be more risk on.
The halving so far has not brought the desired bullish narrative that a lot of people expected but it would never going to be a reason for Bitcoins price to suddenly move up, it's one that will gradually have an impact as the supply shock has a lasting effect on miners and institutional investors.
Patience is key in this game, I believe that this quarter will remain a choppy frustrating one as BTC cools off after a year long rally and gets ready for the next leg up. Making sure that the portfolio is a strong as it can be for the next leg of the Bullrun is key and capital preservation is number 1. Trading because of boredom can be very costly. Stick to your plan as best you can to avoid any mistakes.
The chart is pretty clear, HTF is bullish, still above the 1D 200EMA but LTF is bearish. BTC has clearly broken its uptrend and is now in a bearish trend channel, although there has been a breakout attempt, for now it seems to be a fakeout. For me this leaves 2 scenarios;
- Trigger 1 is a breakout trade where confirmation is needed to avoid another fakeout, this includes making a higher high after a new lower high and therefor confirming a new bullish structure after breaking out of the bearish channel.
- Trigger 2 is more of a bearish scenario but one I believe would be better in the long run. There is a large inefficiency area between 52K-56.5K, price seeks to fill these fair value gaps and as long as that area is left unfilled it will always attract price to it, now this could be filled at anytime in BTC's lifespan but it would make the most sense to do it now rather than after price has another huge rally as the risk of a complete capitulation move down to fill this area would grow. Another reason I believe it makes the most sense is that the 1D 200 EMA is at the bullish OB+ level, in a Bullrun this level is a great point to enter longs as it provides strong support. Adding all these layers of confluence suggests this bullish OB+ area should it provide a positive reaction, would be a good area to enter longs which also would mean the altcoin market would also see a positive move as it is currently massively oversold and would bring traders to be more risk on.
The halving so far has not brought the desired bullish narrative that a lot of people expected but it would never going to be a reason for Bitcoins price to suddenly move up, it's one that will gradually have an impact as the supply shock has a lasting effect on miners and institutional investors.
Patience is key in this game, I believe that this quarter will remain a choppy frustrating one as BTC cools off after a year long rally and gets ready for the next leg up. Making sure that the portfolio is a strong as it can be for the next leg of the Bullrun is key and capital preservation is number 1. Trading because of boredom can be very costly. Stick to your plan as best you can to avoid any mistakes.
Note
Back above the bearish channel after the breakout retest. Bullish momentum must now continue towards "Trigger 1" should it remain bullish.Note
We've now broken above the trigger 1 point, looking to see acceptance at this level before targeting '21previous ATH @ 69KNote
currently retesting the Trigger 1 point as new support for the final go ahead to LONG, needs to close above strongTrade closed: target reached
SWB:69K HITLevel flipped and tested as new support. New target ATH!
Note
The 1D 200ENMA tagged for the first time since OCT '23. Important week ahead in terms of the reaction to this. A positive bounce would be a great start to q3, acceptance below the 1D 200EMA could result in a continuation of Q2's performance/chop. Wouldn't rule out the 
52K area if that were to happen.Note
BTC @ 1D 200EMA, last time this was the case price was 
27KBitcoin absolute needs to react positively off this level, RSI @ Oversold. This is potentially a do or die level.
I'm not saying a potential fakeout breaking below 1D 200EMA isn't possible but acceptance below has had terrible consequences in the past
Note
BTC has reached the Bullish OB+ Is it time for Trigger 2??
if that was the capitulation phase of the sell=off then we should get a strong reaction at these levels. It seems the consensus is that price will go lower and in my mind the market always aims for max pain, that would be liquidate Longs and over 11B has been liquidated already and then leave everyone sidelined as they wait for lower prices.
I'm looking very closely for the signs of buyers retuning but I fear there are a lot of moving parts on this one.
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