BTC Bull Run Before 2024 Halving. BTC New Cycle Now?
Updated
I'm long term bullish on crypto, and I'm happy for this new year pump. Congrats to those who placed longs at 15K, you should take some profits off the table now.
Why? Because we're not out of the woods yet. If you read my previous BTC analysis, I've already mentioned that I'll consider BTC has reversed if it manages to break and close above Ichimoku Cloud at 32K, or at least above all EMAs at 28K, to hint a start of a new cycle. As much as I'd love to see 300K BTC, chances are, that ain't happening this year.
Technical Analysis - Weekly Time Frame:
- BTC is still below EMAs and Ichimoku Cloud <BEARISH>
- 20 and 30 EMAs are already below 200 EMA, 50 and 100 EMAs are about to cross below 200 EMA - Death Cross <BEARISH>
- Heikin Ashi has shown a reversal pattern which will be confirmed by this week's candle close <BULLISH>
- RSI was oversold in November - 2022 lowest low at $15,476, now it's been moving up sharply like January last year and is about to cross middle line upwards, hinting that there's still room for upward movement <BULLISH>
- RSI was oversold and high bearish volume on Nov 7th when BTC made a new lower low, signaling a potential bottom <BULLISH>
- All Strong Supports(Green) and Resistances(Red) are shown in the chart
- A break and close above or below these key levels with high volume comparable to Nov 7th has a high chance to lead BTC to its next key levels/zones
Fundamental Analysis:
- FED is cooling down with interest rate hike, but a pause is not a pivot
- Overall Macros are still the same, no significant change on the big picture
- Most of BTC's circulating supply has not moved for almost 2 years, BTC price can easily be manipulated
- Black Swan potentials: Mt.Gox BTC selling pressure, DCG/Genesis/Binance collapse, USDT/other stable coins depeg, SEC cases, new crypto regulations, geopolitics
It's better to wait for some sort of confirmations every time BTC reaches a key level, to determine the direction it's going next
While technical indicators are good, one bad fundamental news is all it takes to crash BTC
Be Careful.
Not a Financial Advice ;)
Why? Because we're not out of the woods yet. If you read my previous BTC analysis, I've already mentioned that I'll consider BTC has reversed if it manages to break and close above Ichimoku Cloud at 32K, or at least above all EMAs at 28K, to hint a start of a new cycle. As much as I'd love to see 300K BTC, chances are, that ain't happening this year.
Technical Analysis - Weekly Time Frame:
- BTC is still below EMAs and Ichimoku Cloud <BEARISH>
- 20 and 30 EMAs are already below 200 EMA, 50 and 100 EMAs are about to cross below 200 EMA - Death Cross <BEARISH>
- Heikin Ashi has shown a reversal pattern which will be confirmed by this week's candle close <BULLISH>
- RSI was oversold in November - 2022 lowest low at $15,476, now it's been moving up sharply like January last year and is about to cross middle line upwards, hinting that there's still room for upward movement <BULLISH>
- RSI was oversold and high bearish volume on Nov 7th when BTC made a new lower low, signaling a potential bottom <BULLISH>
- All Strong Supports(Green) and Resistances(Red) are shown in the chart
- A break and close above or below these key levels with high volume comparable to Nov 7th has a high chance to lead BTC to its next key levels/zones
Fundamental Analysis:
- FED is cooling down with interest rate hike, but a pause is not a pivot
- Overall Macros are still the same, no significant change on the big picture
- Most of BTC's circulating supply has not moved for almost 2 years, BTC price can easily be manipulated
- Black Swan potentials: Mt.Gox BTC selling pressure, DCG/Genesis/Binance collapse, USDT/other stable coins depeg, SEC cases, new crypto regulations, geopolitics
It's better to wait for some sort of confirmations every time BTC reaches a key level, to determine the direction it's going next
While technical indicators are good, one bad fundamental news is all it takes to crash BTC
Be Careful.
Not a Financial Advice ;)
Note
BTC closed at $20,871.56 this week;- BTC failed to close above 30 EMA
- BTC failed to close above Nov 7th Mother Bar
- BTC failed to close above pre FTX high
Until these conditions are cleared, 21K-22K zone still proves to be a strong resistance. BTC might do a minor correction/consolidate before going up again, but also be wary of any sign of reversal at this key level.
Note
BTC has finally broken above 30 EMA, Nov 7th Mother Bar and pre FTX high.The way to
25K is open, especially if BTC can close weekly with all conditions above met.BTC Dominance is still high, that's why most alts still fail to break above key resistance.
Note
BTC closed weekly above 30 Weekly EMA, but still below 200 Weekly EMA and Sep 12th weekly high.$23,200-$23,700 zone still proves to be a strong resistance.
Until BTC can clear this area, BTC is still prone to a correction/pullback to $21,500 level or even below.
Watch out for sign of reversals/continuations at $22,500-$23,500 range.
Weekly Heikin Ashi is still strong Bullish, while Daily Heikin Ashi has indicated a pause/weakness/first sign of reversal.
Note
BTC finally reached $25,200 level, and managed to push its price higher than Aug 22 high. There's a very strong resistance in this area, so expect multiple breakthrough attempts, rejections, and consolidations around this area, or even pullbacks to 21K-22K area. If BTC manages to close and fix its price above $25,250, it will move unobstructed to 28K.Note
As I mentioned last week, the pullback did happen but it didn't reach 21K-22K area. Technically speaking that area is a good key level for continuation up, and might be good to open long there. However if BTC goes lower than that, it shows weakness and a possible trend change, therefore I'm looking out for chances to short. Patience is key.
NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE
DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH
YOUR MONEY IS YOUR OWN RESPONSIBILITY
DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH
YOUR MONEY IS YOUR OWN RESPONSIBILITY
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