BTC/USDT Analysis – Feb 7, 2024: 4H Consolidation & Key Zone
Most Relevant Timeframe and Key Levels
1. Relevant Timeframe for Action
• Based on the indicators Mason’s Satisfaction (0.1792), ISPD Div Pro (Investor Satisfaction ~0.19), and Koncorde (Azul > 100 while Verde is negative) on the 4H timeframe, there is a clearer “pessimism” / “oversold” context visible on this timeframe.
• The 4H chart appears to be a good compromise for identifying an entry point, provided that one is willing to accept intraday volatility.
• Smaller timeframes (15m–1H) are tradable for scalping, but this approach requires constant monitoring and can be invalidated if the 95k level breaks decisively.
2. Support and Resistance Levels
• Major short/mid-term supports:
• 4H LoAVWAP: ~95,860–96,000 USDT
• Psychological zone: ~94,000–95,000 USDT
• Lower support if broken: ~89,000–90,000 USDT (a break of this zone would have stronger bearish implications).
• Resistance levels:
• MTTFI Short Term MA (4H): ~99,200–99,300 USDT
• HiAVWAP 4H: ~103,000 USDT
• Daily resistance: ~104,700 USDT (AVWAP High), acting as a more distant resistance.
Conclusion and Recommendations
1. Overall Market Situation
• The BTC/USDT market is in short-term consolidation/correction (2H–4H trending downward), while the broader trend remains bullish (12H–1D–1W trending upward).
• Sentiment indicators (ISPD Div Pro, Mason’s) on 4H are moving into lower zones, which could indicate a speculative buying opportunity.
• Macroeconomic factors (NFP, US unemployment data) could increase volatility. A worse-than-expected employment report may trigger a faster rebound.
2. Short-Term Strategy (4H)
• Key zone to watch: 95k–96k
• Bullish scenario: If this support holds, a long position around 96k could be considered, with a tight stop-loss below ~94.5–95k. The first technical target would be 99–100k (Short Term MA), with a further target at 103k.
• Bearish scenario: A clear break below 94–95k could lead to a drop towards 90k, potentially 89k. In this case, caution is advised, as the correction could deepen.
3. Long-Term Strategy (Daily, Weekly)
• No major bearish reversal is confirmed as long as 89k holds.
• For patient investors, the current move is still a “breather” within a broader uptrend.
• Those focusing on long-term accumulation could gradually buy on dips, while others might wait for the corrective wave to complete (potential ABC pattern).
4. Key Takeaways from Observations
• Short-term trades should focus on the 94–95k zone holding.
• Altcoins continue a slow correction, while BTC remains stronger; breaking 89k would be a concerning signal.
• US economic data (14:30 UTC) could trigger abrupt market moves (either up or down).
• Political news (Trump, ETFs, BTC reserves) can influence sentiment, but they often have more of a media impact than a fundamental one in the short term.
Summary
• The 4H timeframe is favored for a potential entry point, given the low sentiment and possible rebound signals.
• Critical support zone: ~95k → If it holds, a long trade with targets at 99k–103k could be considered.
• If 89k is not broken, the overall trend remains bullish, and dips may present buying opportunities.
1. Relevant Timeframe for Action
• Based on the indicators Mason’s Satisfaction (0.1792), ISPD Div Pro (Investor Satisfaction ~0.19), and Koncorde (Azul > 100 while Verde is negative) on the 4H timeframe, there is a clearer “pessimism” / “oversold” context visible on this timeframe.
• The 4H chart appears to be a good compromise for identifying an entry point, provided that one is willing to accept intraday volatility.
• Smaller timeframes (15m–1H) are tradable for scalping, but this approach requires constant monitoring and can be invalidated if the 95k level breaks decisively.
2. Support and Resistance Levels
• Major short/mid-term supports:
• 4H LoAVWAP: ~95,860–96,000 USDT
• Psychological zone: ~94,000–95,000 USDT
• Lower support if broken: ~89,000–90,000 USDT (a break of this zone would have stronger bearish implications).
• Resistance levels:
• MTTFI Short Term MA (4H): ~99,200–99,300 USDT
• HiAVWAP 4H: ~103,000 USDT
• Daily resistance: ~104,700 USDT (AVWAP High), acting as a more distant resistance.
Conclusion and Recommendations
1. Overall Market Situation
• The BTC/USDT market is in short-term consolidation/correction (2H–4H trending downward), while the broader trend remains bullish (12H–1D–1W trending upward).
• Sentiment indicators (ISPD Div Pro, Mason’s) on 4H are moving into lower zones, which could indicate a speculative buying opportunity.
• Macroeconomic factors (NFP, US unemployment data) could increase volatility. A worse-than-expected employment report may trigger a faster rebound.
2. Short-Term Strategy (4H)
• Key zone to watch: 95k–96k
• Bullish scenario: If this support holds, a long position around 96k could be considered, with a tight stop-loss below ~94.5–95k. The first technical target would be 99–100k (Short Term MA), with a further target at 103k.
• Bearish scenario: A clear break below 94–95k could lead to a drop towards 90k, potentially 89k. In this case, caution is advised, as the correction could deepen.
3. Long-Term Strategy (Daily, Weekly)
• No major bearish reversal is confirmed as long as 89k holds.
• For patient investors, the current move is still a “breather” within a broader uptrend.
• Those focusing on long-term accumulation could gradually buy on dips, while others might wait for the corrective wave to complete (potential ABC pattern).
4. Key Takeaways from Observations
• Short-term trades should focus on the 94–95k zone holding.
• Altcoins continue a slow correction, while BTC remains stronger; breaking 89k would be a concerning signal.
• US economic data (14:30 UTC) could trigger abrupt market moves (either up or down).
• Political news (Trump, ETFs, BTC reserves) can influence sentiment, but they often have more of a media impact than a fundamental one in the short term.
Summary
• The 4H timeframe is favored for a potential entry point, given the low sentiment and possible rebound signals.
• Critical support zone: ~95k → If it holds, a long trade with targets at 99k–103k could be considered.
• If 89k is not broken, the overall trend remains bullish, and dips may present buying opportunities.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.