BITCOIN possible change or sudden continuation of trend.
As we know, I have uploaded different BTC analyzes. In general, the majority have been bearish. And I still am. From 64k USDT. But hey, that's not the point. I invite you to read those articles, before seeing this analysis, it will help you to enter the context regarding my ideas.
First Analysis:
Second Analysis:
These first analyzes were quite simple. I still did not take education very seriously. Oh well. The following were more explicit.
Fundamental Crisis:
Fundamental and Technical Bitcoin:
Bitcoin channels:
Once you understand these analyzes.
I invite you to read my guide. In Tradingview, so you can understand the tools that we will use in this analysis.
Technical analysis:
Bitcoin started a sharp decline, and we remain within a side zone. Which is located in the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement and 0.618 of it. However, we are having more and more difficulty reaching new values, which leads the market to continue in a downtrend. In short term.
If we used Gann's fan. We can denote a strong support at 0.618 Fibonacci, in previous analysis I said that July is expected to be bullish, due to ETF issues, among other positive things for the market, to then fall to 0.786 Fibonacci as in all bitcoin cycles based on the PiCycle indicator. And with a simple visualization we see that the 0.618 Fibonacci Fan is supporting the price in a spectacular way.
Example:
If we place both a bullish and a bearish fan. We could see it in the following way.
If we are based on the RSI. We could determine that we are at a turning point. From oversold area. For the new ones, the RSI is not an indicator that always touches Overbought and oversold, there are situations where the RSI remains in a zone, and it is not possible to determine how divergence, the RSI can scale value according to the asset, however, it also determines the time. The asset can continue in a downtrend and not obtain a higher value than the previous one and reach the overbought zone (70 RSI). No need for higher value.
Similar to an uptrend, the RSI never dipped below 50 RSI. In this downtrend, we are getting values that do not exceed 50 RSI. And we can get to touch 70. But it falls again. So on the subject of divergences, on the RSI we could take it as pretty weak for sure at this point.
Already understanding that the RSI, obtains value not only by the growth of the asset, if not by time, value. Let's go to other indicators with a different use.
If we realize it, an indicator that, unlike MACD, tends to greatly reduce small trends and continue the longer trend is AO.
Currently we can notice that the AO is suggesting the loss of bearish strength. Which could be a bullish sign. However. It can also be a "Fake Signal" or "Bullish trap" which is what I consider serious. A rise to 48k and a drop to 16k. Same as my idea from months ago. In the 60k of BTC.
AO:
Already having all this as a base. Let's go to the present time. Currently BTC continues to lose value, but supporting within the 0.618 Fibonacci Fann. Staying above 0.5 Fibonacci Retracement. And it follows Wyckoff's theory of distribution, unlike what many think, Wyckoff's theory is not lines that directly follow a pattern. It is simply a theory. Which is applied based on the concept.
Here comes the data. One day in April the MFI indicator had a fairly strong blue line. If you read the guide, you should know its meaning, but here I leave it for you.
- Blue bar - MFI index is growing, volume is decreasing. The market shift continues its course despite a drop in volume. The trend can be changed quickly.
- The Market Facilitation Index indicator rose, however the volume has fallen. This suggests that the market does not have volume support from traders and the cost changes due to the speculations of traders "on the ground" (intermediaries - brokers and dealers).
In other words, it means a point of speculation, without support from traders, which could generate a sudden change in trend or continuation of it.
Currently the largest MFI has been generated in both BitSpamp and Binance as well as the BTC asset. Suggesting that this point is an indecisive zone, being a ridiculously higher bar than many previous ones.
Binance:
BitSpamp:
Bybit:
And so on, generating that in this value of the asset, we have that meaning already given. Honestly, I would bet long term with a StopLoss below $ 28,000. Due to the divergence of the AO. Take the entrance at the 32700 point. But as mentioned. I just hope for a climb to 48k. To go back down. The economy in general is bad. So I don't think BTC will reach higher values in the short term. Still we've already made incredible profits from our drop bet from USDT 60k.
What's more. Moving averages, for periods like 20-50-200. They suggest an opening.
And if we rely on the Aligator Indicator. A very useful one. To view support and resistance zones using moving averages.
We can denote. That the price tested the 3 parts of the crocodile, or 3 moving averages of the indicator and is currently approaching. For an opening or closing of the mouth.
Finally, how did you find this analysis? I haven't made it too long, and try to keep it simple. You can see the other shapes in the previous reviews.
First Analysis:
Second Analysis:
These first analyzes were quite simple. I still did not take education very seriously. Oh well. The following were more explicit.
Fundamental Crisis:
Fundamental and Technical Bitcoin:
Bitcoin channels:
Once you understand these analyzes.
I invite you to read my guide. In Tradingview, so you can understand the tools that we will use in this analysis.
Technical analysis:
Bitcoin started a sharp decline, and we remain within a side zone. Which is located in the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement and 0.618 of it. However, we are having more and more difficulty reaching new values, which leads the market to continue in a downtrend. In short term.
If we used Gann's fan. We can denote a strong support at 0.618 Fibonacci, in previous analysis I said that July is expected to be bullish, due to ETF issues, among other positive things for the market, to then fall to 0.786 Fibonacci as in all bitcoin cycles based on the PiCycle indicator. And with a simple visualization we see that the 0.618 Fibonacci Fan is supporting the price in a spectacular way.
Example:
If we place both a bullish and a bearish fan. We could see it in the following way.
If we are based on the RSI. We could determine that we are at a turning point. From oversold area. For the new ones, the RSI is not an indicator that always touches Overbought and oversold, there are situations where the RSI remains in a zone, and it is not possible to determine how divergence, the RSI can scale value according to the asset, however, it also determines the time. The asset can continue in a downtrend and not obtain a higher value than the previous one and reach the overbought zone (70 RSI). No need for higher value.
Similar to an uptrend, the RSI never dipped below 50 RSI. In this downtrend, we are getting values that do not exceed 50 RSI. And we can get to touch 70. But it falls again. So on the subject of divergences, on the RSI we could take it as pretty weak for sure at this point.
Already understanding that the RSI, obtains value not only by the growth of the asset, if not by time, value. Let's go to other indicators with a different use.
If we realize it, an indicator that, unlike MACD, tends to greatly reduce small trends and continue the longer trend is AO.
Currently we can notice that the AO is suggesting the loss of bearish strength. Which could be a bullish sign. However. It can also be a "Fake Signal" or "Bullish trap" which is what I consider serious. A rise to 48k and a drop to 16k. Same as my idea from months ago. In the 60k of BTC.
AO:
Already having all this as a base. Let's go to the present time. Currently BTC continues to lose value, but supporting within the 0.618 Fibonacci Fann. Staying above 0.5 Fibonacci Retracement. And it follows Wyckoff's theory of distribution, unlike what many think, Wyckoff's theory is not lines that directly follow a pattern. It is simply a theory. Which is applied based on the concept.
Here comes the data. One day in April the MFI indicator had a fairly strong blue line. If you read the guide, you should know its meaning, but here I leave it for you.
- Blue bar - MFI index is growing, volume is decreasing. The market shift continues its course despite a drop in volume. The trend can be changed quickly.
- The Market Facilitation Index indicator rose, however the volume has fallen. This suggests that the market does not have volume support from traders and the cost changes due to the speculations of traders "on the ground" (intermediaries - brokers and dealers).
In other words, it means a point of speculation, without support from traders, which could generate a sudden change in trend or continuation of it.
Currently the largest MFI has been generated in both BitSpamp and Binance as well as the BTC asset. Suggesting that this point is an indecisive zone, being a ridiculously higher bar than many previous ones.
Binance:
BitSpamp:
Bybit:
And so on, generating that in this value of the asset, we have that meaning already given. Honestly, I would bet long term with a StopLoss below $ 28,000. Due to the divergence of the AO. Take the entrance at the 32700 point. But as mentioned. I just hope for a climb to 48k. To go back down. The economy in general is bad. So I don't think BTC will reach higher values in the short term. Still we've already made incredible profits from our drop bet from USDT 60k.
What's more. Moving averages, for periods like 20-50-200. They suggest an opening.
And if we rely on the Aligator Indicator. A very useful one. To view support and resistance zones using moving averages.
We can denote. That the price tested the 3 parts of the crocodile, or 3 moving averages of the indicator and is currently approaching. For an opening or closing of the mouth.
Finally, how did you find this analysis? I haven't made it too long, and try to keep it simple. You can see the other shapes in the previous reviews.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.