30/09/24 Weekly outlook
Following a very important week in the macro economic landscape, a round of rate cuts that signals a pivot in how governments are tackling their economies, bitcoin saw a surge from the start of the week right through until the end of the traditional trading week on Friday. Up +6.3%.
Last week Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net inflow of US$1.11 billion, and Ethereum spot ETFs had a net inflow of 84.51m. Bitcoin is clearly still favoured by the larger institutional investors, at least for now they are.
This week should be a semi-turbulent week given the forces at play, we've seen the larger economic environment flip to a more risk-on one with the event of a 50bps rate cut starting a period of QE, however, it is also the month end & quarter end. This is a time for "window dressing" the balance sheet and is negative to market liquidity. With banks making their balance sheet risk assessments at the very end of the quarter a shift from holding riskier assets to safer/high quality assets is made and therefor an assets like BTC will fall victim to this.
We are seeing the effects of that at time of writing, BTC has fallen -2.7% today and this window dressing is definitely a contributor to it, albeit a potentially temporary measure and on the 1st OCT that pressure should be relieved. Given the broader market environment, by the end of the week this loss should be recovered and some, IMO any dip is for buying in all of Q4, everything has set up nicely for a strong finish to the end of the year!
Last week Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net inflow of US$1.11 billion, and Ethereum spot ETFs had a net inflow of 84.51m. Bitcoin is clearly still favoured by the larger institutional investors, at least for now they are.
This week should be a semi-turbulent week given the forces at play, we've seen the larger economic environment flip to a more risk-on one with the event of a 50bps rate cut starting a period of QE, however, it is also the month end & quarter end. This is a time for "window dressing" the balance sheet and is negative to market liquidity. With banks making their balance sheet risk assessments at the very end of the quarter a shift from holding riskier assets to safer/high quality assets is made and therefor an assets like BTC will fall victim to this.
We are seeing the effects of that at time of writing, BTC has fallen -2.7% today and this window dressing is definitely a contributor to it, albeit a potentially temporary measure and on the 1st OCT that pressure should be relieved. Given the broader market environment, by the end of the week this loss should be recovered and some, IMO any dip is for buying in all of Q4, everything has set up nicely for a strong finish to the end of the year!
Comment
0.25 seems to be support for now.
$65,000 the pivot point once again for me.
Comment
Large sell off breaking below weekly low.
BTC is now battling with the 4H 200EMA, a reclaim would be very bullish.
Rejection would be a retest of the 1D 200EMA @ $59,800
Comment
The fight for the 4H 200EMA continues after a large selloff.
With geopolitical worries growing + quarterly open this sell off can definitely be explained, I would say that both are temporary and as long as HTF structure holds.
Comment
4H 200EMA reclaimed! If BTC is able to reclaim the weekly low by weeks end it would be a strong recovery from a shaky start to the weak. 
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