What if BTC 69k was the top? (different scenarios)
Updated
At this critical stage in the market one needs to weight different possibilities to avoid being holding a bag of rocks into a bear market or a deep market correction.
So what are the possibilities here? There is a leg-up coming for BTC, that we know. Typically after a top is set, a dip will follow then a bounce to the 0.702 Fib level (that is referred to as the kiss of death) before plunging into the abyss of the bear market.
So...
1) If the top was already in at 69k then this leg will top at 0.702 Fib level at 64.3k before triggering the Alts Season then plunging into the bear market.
2) If the top is not in yet, then we will head beyond 72k (the cycle 4.236 Fib extension) before a major correction down. Leg-up to follow; I.e. the kiss of death at 0.702 Fib level to be measured then.
3) One of the above needs to play out for Alts Season to kick in.
4) If none of the two scenarios play out, then welcome hibernation season of a lengthening cycle where May 2021 dip gets a replay pushing the Bull Run and Alts Season to Q2 2022 minimum. And this possibility is what scares me the most.
5) First week of December will determine which card will be played out.
… my 2 satoshi
So what are the possibilities here? There is a leg-up coming for BTC, that we know. Typically after a top is set, a dip will follow then a bounce to the 0.702 Fib level (that is referred to as the kiss of death) before plunging into the abyss of the bear market.
So...
1) If the top was already in at 69k then this leg will top at 0.702 Fib level at 64.3k before triggering the Alts Season then plunging into the bear market.
2) If the top is not in yet, then we will head beyond 72k (the cycle 4.236 Fib extension) before a major correction down. Leg-up to follow; I.e. the kiss of death at 0.702 Fib level to be measured then.
3) One of the above needs to play out for Alts Season to kick in.
4) If none of the two scenarios play out, then welcome hibernation season of a lengthening cycle where May 2021 dip gets a replay pushing the Bull Run and Alts Season to Q2 2022 minimum. And this possibility is what scares me the most.
5) First week of December will determine which card will be played out.
… my 2 satoshi
Note
For now:1) Bitcoin already found support at the 21W EMA/20W SMA support band (52.7k/50.7k)
2) Bitcoin needs to reclaim the 8W SMA (60.7k)
3) the monthly candle close tomorrow is very critical to determine the strength of the bulls. If we manage to close above the 8W SMA, then 64k is the major resistance to be reclaimed.
Note
1) After last night weekly candle close, the Weekly RSI is intact. And BTC weekly RSI looks healthy bouncing of the support.2) However the daily RSI has a major resistance to be claimed, coinciding with 8W SMA level which proves to require volatility from BTC to go through.
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