I am bearish on 
BTC for the following reasons:
1️⃣ The $Bybit hack resulted in a loss of $1.4B worth of $ETH. To continue trading, Bybit is currently bridging liquidity with Binance. However, this is only a temporary solution. Eventually, they will need to buy back $1.4B in ETH, and the only reserve asset large enough to cover this is Bitcoin. I expect at least 11B of BTC to be sold on the market to acquire the necessary ETH.
2️⃣ The hackers are liquidating their $1.4B in stolen ETH. Since smart contract-based assets can be traced and frozen, their best option is to swap toBTC, which is harder to track and cannot be frozen.
In total, Bitcoin faces a potential selling pressure of over 22B, which is enough to significantly impact its price.
📉 Given that Bitcoin is already in a consolidation phase, this pressure could push the price down to $93K or even $91K.
📊 Expect dead cat bounces, where traders can profit, but be cautious—this selling pressure is real. Bybit needs to resolve its liquidity issues quickly, and the hackers are racing to cash out ASAP.
⚠️ DYOR (Do Your Own Research).
BTC for the following reasons:1️⃣ The $Bybit hack resulted in a loss of $1.4B worth of $ETH. To continue trading, Bybit is currently bridging liquidity with Binance. However, this is only a temporary solution. Eventually, they will need to buy back $1.4B in ETH, and the only reserve asset large enough to cover this is Bitcoin. I expect at least 11B of BTC to be sold on the market to acquire the necessary ETH.
2️⃣ The hackers are liquidating their $1.4B in stolen ETH. Since smart contract-based assets can be traced and frozen, their best option is to swap to
BTC, which is harder to track and cannot be frozen.In total, Bitcoin faces a potential selling pressure of over 22B, which is enough to significantly impact its price.
📉 Given that Bitcoin is already in a consolidation phase, this pressure could push the price down to $93K or even $91K.
📊 Expect dead cat bounces, where traders can profit, but be cautious—this selling pressure is real. Bybit needs to resolve its liquidity issues quickly, and the hackers are racing to cash out ASAP.
⚠️ DYOR (Do Your Own Research).
Trade active
Everything happened as forecasted. The market makers liquidated all the longs waiting for a long time at the south and BTC touched $85k before having a rebound to $87k. Trade closed: target reached
BTC at 83K—nice correction. But how deep can we go? $81K? There's panic in the market, even ETFs are unloading record amounts...
If we drop below $81K, it will be hard to keep the bull market on track. The lower we go, the higher the probability that this cycle is coming to an end.
Note
I was the first to pinpoint the bottom of this correction while everyone was laughing at me. It was 2 months ago.
Note
BTC reached $79.5k this morning. Thanks to the #ETF, these are the ones selling all they got.
Waiting for a nice bounce anytime soon.
I hope that the week end will calm down all this FUD.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.