Last weeks high: $96,500
Last weeks low: $78,297.13
Midpoint: $87,398.56
What a week! In my last weekly outlook I proposed the idea that BTC was coiling up for a big move, the question was "which direction will the move be?" Well we got our answer, after, multiple weeks hovering around the $96K level bitcoin sold off a massive 18% to a low of $78.2k. This sell-off broke the weekly support area of $91K after a full 3 months of holding.
Now that we answered last weeks question I propose a new one, is $91K now a HTF resistance level? To answer that question a look at the weekly chart, despite such a severe sell-off this is not unusual in a bull market, 25-25% corrections happen multiple times during a large bullish trend. To add to that, the weekly close still managed to be above the $91K mini range floor, in essence a giant SFP on the weekly candle and therefore a continuation high would make sense from a TA point of view.
For the bulls the worry would be the inevitable backfilling of the wick on the weekly, for me this comes into play if we have acceptance back below $91K, entirely possible.
On Friday 7th March President Trump is holding a Cryptocurrency summit at the white house, this will include David Sacks (crypto & AI czar), Founders, CEOs and members of the digital assets group. This comes off the back of confirmation of the "Crypto Strategic Reserve" that will contain BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP & ADA and was announced yesterday. I do not believe in coincidences so the timing of this is very interesting to me, to announce this on a weekend with very thin orderbooks and low volume after such a big sell-off had to be done on purpose IMO. The timing would guarantee a swift rally, I also believe the sell-off could be related to this announcement too, if a market maker like the US government has the means to create a more optimal entry, they will do just that.
I could see the market being very cautious up until Friday, the $91K is a key S/R level and will determine if bitcoin backfills the weekly wick or moves up to weekly high.
Last weeks low: $78,297.13
Midpoint: $87,398.56
What a week! In my last weekly outlook I proposed the idea that BTC was coiling up for a big move, the question was "which direction will the move be?" Well we got our answer, after, multiple weeks hovering around the $96K level bitcoin sold off a massive 18% to a low of $78.2k. This sell-off broke the weekly support area of $91K after a full 3 months of holding.
Now that we answered last weeks question I propose a new one, is $91K now a HTF resistance level? To answer that question a look at the weekly chart, despite such a severe sell-off this is not unusual in a bull market, 25-25% corrections happen multiple times during a large bullish trend. To add to that, the weekly close still managed to be above the $91K mini range floor, in essence a giant SFP on the weekly candle and therefore a continuation high would make sense from a TA point of view.
For the bulls the worry would be the inevitable backfilling of the wick on the weekly, for me this comes into play if we have acceptance back below $91K, entirely possible.
On Friday 7th March President Trump is holding a Cryptocurrency summit at the white house, this will include David Sacks (crypto & AI czar), Founders, CEOs and members of the digital assets group. This comes off the back of confirmation of the "Crypto Strategic Reserve" that will contain BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP & ADA and was announced yesterday. I do not believe in coincidences so the timing of this is very interesting to me, to announce this on a weekend with very thin orderbooks and low volume after such a big sell-off had to be done on purpose IMO. The timing would guarantee a swift rally, I also believe the sell-off could be related to this announcement too, if a market maker like the US government has the means to create a more optimal entry, they will do just that.
I could see the market being very cautious up until Friday, the $91K is a key S/R level and will determine if bitcoin backfills the weekly wick or moves up to weekly high.
Note
So far it looks as though $91K is new resistance. The weekly midpoint needs to hold to print a higher low on the LTF. What's clear is that institutional investors were not happy that retail we able to pump the market on a Sunday when they were all offline, another reminder that weekend moves are often not an indication of what the broader market is feeling.
Note
One day away from the White house Crypto announcement on the strategic reserve. BTC looking to flip the $91K area however the market is clearly very tentative. This is not helped by the sell-off in the SPX and broader Tradfi markets, the tariff talks and geopolitical tensions have cause a de-risking. BTC is still structurally bullish but has lost a lot of momentum. I would like to see BTC move towards the weekly high at $96k before the announcement but we will see...
Tomorrow is a big day.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.