BTC is currently at a critical juncture, with three distinct trends emerging on the same chart:Weekly Bearish Downtrend (Green):
This 1W bearish channel remains intact. Despite bullish optimism,
BTC has not broken out of this green channel, meaning we are technically still in a bearish trend.Daily Recovery Bullish Uptrend (Red):
On the 1D timeframe,
BTC has been following a recovery bullish channel. However, this channel is now colliding with the top of the bearish weekly channel, creating significant resistance.Hourly Bearish Downtrend (Yellow):
A new bearish downtrend on the 1H timeframe has formed as a result of
BTC failing to break through the top of the 1W green bearish falling wedge.Potential Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario 1:
If
BTC breaks through the $90k resistance level and exits the weekly bearish channel (green), it could signal a strong long position and confirm the end of the downtrend, marking a reversal.Bearish Scenario 2:
If
BTC continues to follow the yellow downtrend and breaks down through the red recovery channel, this would invalidate the recovery and indicate further downside potential.Outlook and Timeframe:
In my bearish warning from February 2025, I projected the end of the bearish consolidation by May 2025. If the bearish Scenario 2 plays out, it will confirm that this early warning was once again accurate.
However, if
BTC manages to pump above $90k and sustain this level for at least a week, it would signal an early consolidation (one month ahead of schedule) and suggest that we are out of trouble.Conclusion:
Watch for a confirmed breakout or breakdown.
Patience is key; wait for confirmation before making significant moves.
As always, DYOR (Do Your Own Research).
Trade active
Bearish Scenario 2 is currently playing out. BTC has broken through all supports like butter, largely due to the SPX500 experiencing a bearish dump. The weekly candle for the TradFi market confirms that we are in a recession, which heavily impacts institutions.With tariffs looming in just a few days, the SPX500 could see further downside.
As for
BTC, the recent bounce looks unconvincing — it may be temporary. On the macro level, we remain in a bearish trend on both the 1W and now the 1D timeframe. This no longer resembles a bull market.Market makers have printed 1 billion USDT, so we could see a
BTC pump over the weekend. However, next week isn't looking promising.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.