Bitcoin Weekly Chart
Since the begining of March BTC has been consolidating in a range from approximately 60k to just over 70k. A year earlier BTC also entered a consolidation phase in March with the price of BTC ranging from about 25K to just over 30k.
The consolidation lasted about seven months with BTC finally breaking out in mid-October 2023. After exiting the consolidation the price of BTC more than doubled over the next five months.
It is impossible to know what the price of BTC will do in the short to medium term. However, if this current market cycle is going to have a similar timing as the previous two cycles (follow the 4-year cycle), then I believe it is possible for this consolidation to be very similar to the consolidation last year. If that happens then we would be looking at three or four more months of range bound consolidation with a breakout in the fall.
There are signs that this market cycle may have more in common with the 2011 to 2015 market cycle. The 2011 to 2015 cycle was accelerated compared to the next two cycle. The time it took for the price of BTC to surpass the previous all-time high was only 15 months (from the bear market bottom). Also, the cycle peak occurred only two years into the cycle, the next two cycle peaks were closer to year three of the cycle.
Looking at the current market cycle, the time it took the price of BTC to surpass the 2021 all-time high was 16 months, very close to the timing of the first cycle. If this current cycle timing does match the first cycle (2011 to 2015) then I would expect the price of BTC to peak in late fall of this year.
The consolidation lasted about seven months with BTC finally breaking out in mid-October 2023. After exiting the consolidation the price of BTC more than doubled over the next five months.
It is impossible to know what the price of BTC will do in the short to medium term. However, if this current market cycle is going to have a similar timing as the previous two cycles (follow the 4-year cycle), then I believe it is possible for this consolidation to be very similar to the consolidation last year. If that happens then we would be looking at three or four more months of range bound consolidation with a breakout in the fall.
There are signs that this market cycle may have more in common with the 2011 to 2015 market cycle. The 2011 to 2015 cycle was accelerated compared to the next two cycle. The time it took for the price of BTC to surpass the previous all-time high was only 15 months (from the bear market bottom). Also, the cycle peak occurred only two years into the cycle, the next two cycle peaks were closer to year three of the cycle.
Looking at the current market cycle, the time it took the price of BTC to surpass the 2021 all-time high was 16 months, very close to the timing of the first cycle. If this current cycle timing does match the first cycle (2011 to 2015) then I would expect the price of BTC to peak in late fall of this year.
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