Bitcoin / TetherUSUpdated Bitcoin! 6K is still a possibility...
Hello Traders,
In the last two years, Bitcoin has always bounced sharply from the oversold levels on the RSI. However, we always need to prepare for bearish scenario.
Looking at the 4 hour chart, I see indecision between bull and bear. If you pay close attention, we see inverse H&S (pink) and H&S pattern (orange) is forming at the same time.
Breakout below the the brown trendline will directly send us to the $6000 where we see confluent support, whereas target for the breakout above the blue line is $7116 where we see major resistance.
Currently, Bitcoin is trying to find higher low, and Bitcoin needs to find higher high in order to diminish the bearish scenario.
If you pay attention to the market crash around early April, the market structure is a little bit different this time. First of all, there was no H&S pattern previously.
Secondly, the height or the thickness of the Ichimoku Kumo was much thinner in early April compared to this time. (we see very thick Ichimoku Kumo this time, and statistically speaking it is highly unlikely that Bitcoin can penetrate Kumo with this thickness) If we want bull run, it is important for bulls to surpass $7000 before June 18th or else we will see more sideway movement or potentially further dip in next week.
In short term, my position remain bearish unless Bitcoin breakout from the blue trendline and go above the red Ichimoku line. I would not swing trade Bitcoin as the price action is highly unpredictable.
Happy trading.
In the last two years, Bitcoin has always bounced sharply from the oversold levels on the RSI. However, we always need to prepare for bearish scenario.
Looking at the 4 hour chart, I see indecision between bull and bear. If you pay close attention, we see inverse H&S (pink) and H&S pattern (orange) is forming at the same time.
Breakout below the the brown trendline will directly send us to the $6000 where we see confluent support, whereas target for the breakout above the blue line is $7116 where we see major resistance.
Currently, Bitcoin is trying to find higher low, and Bitcoin needs to find higher high in order to diminish the bearish scenario.
If you pay attention to the market crash around early April, the market structure is a little bit different this time. First of all, there was no H&S pattern previously.
Secondly, the height or the thickness of the Ichimoku Kumo was much thinner in early April compared to this time. (we see very thick Ichimoku Kumo this time, and statistically speaking it is highly unlikely that Bitcoin can penetrate Kumo with this thickness) If we want bull run, it is important for bulls to surpass $7000 before June 18th or else we will see more sideway movement or potentially further dip in next week.
In short term, my position remain bearish unless Bitcoin breakout from the blue trendline and go above the red Ichimoku line. I would not swing trade Bitcoin as the price action is highly unpredictable.
Happy trading.
Note
I feel like bearish breakout is becoming more probable now. Bitcoin failed to find higher high at the moment and heading back to the bottom of the trendline.
Note
As expected Bitcoin is currently below brown trendline. However, the breakout was not confirmed yet. If Bitcoin goes below 6370 with high selling volume, that would be a good indicator that bear is still in control. (there was a MACD crossover in hourly chart)Note
I feel like this bear breakout was somewhat forced. We see MACD and RSI bull divergence. We will probably have relief rally soon.
Note
Pretty much nothing happened this weekend. Looking at the 4 hour chart for bitcoin, we see symmetrical triangle which shows indecisiveness between sellers and buyers. This idea is also reinforced by the formation of both H&S and inverse H&S pattern.
For now, I am bearish on Bitcoin for few reasons:
1) RSI 50 is acting as fairly strong resistance at the moment.
2) Bearish MACD crossover is about to happen.
3) Heavy Ichimoku cloud resistance is ahead of us.
The target for the bearish breakout from the symmetrical triangle is 5800. However, I expect more selling if we break below 6000 because it essentially break the triple bottom formation.
Note
Breakout!! Let's see if we can find support at 6650. If so, the target for inverse head and shoulder patterns is $7100. There will be few hours of consolidation/accumulation before the next move.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.