Is 20k really the bottom ?
Updated
Hello Guys, uploading my analysis to translator is back. meow
I traded based on my analysis last time, and a reasonable profit was generated. Of course, compared to the previous losses, the profit is insignificant.
Knowing the magic of compound interest, I look forward to becoming a cornerstone for the market to continue to flow as it thinks.
Before going into the technical analysis, it should be considered that September is imminent and the stock market has contracted recently due to Powell's hawkish remarks at the FOMC.
In addition, the issue of unlocking the regular FUD Mount Gox lockup in the cryptocurrency market has been highlighted once again, and it is necessary to be alert this time.
My chart analysis situation that I see as important is as follows.
Total wave decline ABC wave C wave situation
The completion form of the trend reversal failure type candle implying the continuous decline of the C wave of the one-month candle bar. ( This will mean a resistance of 25k in the future. )
Uncertainty of the indicator that it is a real trough shown by the indicator of the previous trough that has been continuously presented.
Uncertainty of divergence in one-week candles of Huobi Exchange with different candle closing times and 4-day divergence of existing exchanges
Based on these points, we are considering several scenarios for the future chart direction.
1. At present, the occurrence of a downward C wave of intense complete surrender that breaks the uncertainty of divergence that exists.
To this end, a candle that suggests a trend reversal from the current period will not form. A scenario for discarding this assumption would be to show a move above the 22k near the previous high.
2. This is an upward progress scenario through stronger upward divergence through support and rebound in the 18,400 , 17,400 section, which is the 786 or 1 point of the trend Fibonacci.
I think this will be similar to the rise before the corona outbreak.
3. This is a scenario where the short-term B correction wave ends and C wave rises through divergence while keeping the low in the current section ( 19500 ). Personally, I don't think the reliability is high yet.
In the previous analysis, it was an inflection point, so the analysis was simple to some extent and it was possible to proceed with a definite transaction, but now the trend is in progress. And it should be taken into account that the trend has progressed and a movement close to 20% has occurred, which is an area that requires a real-time response after unfolding various scenarios and keeping a close eye on the candle.
Personally, I am thinking of Scenario 1 in that the market has finished an unusually huge rise, a decline is in progress, and the end of that decline is reached. We talked about the number of cases.
First of all, if it does not come near or even near 20850 USD, which is 0.236 points, my strength for scenario 1 will be a little more.
I would appreciate it if you could look at it as one opinion.
upper resistance price range : 22,000 USD
Important price support points in case of decline : 18,400 - 17,450 - 14,700 - 12,000 - 10,000 ( fight zone !! )
I traded based on my analysis last time, and a reasonable profit was generated. Of course, compared to the previous losses, the profit is insignificant.
Knowing the magic of compound interest, I look forward to becoming a cornerstone for the market to continue to flow as it thinks.
Before going into the technical analysis, it should be considered that September is imminent and the stock market has contracted recently due to Powell's hawkish remarks at the FOMC.
In addition, the issue of unlocking the regular FUD Mount Gox lockup in the cryptocurrency market has been highlighted once again, and it is necessary to be alert this time.
My chart analysis situation that I see as important is as follows.
Total wave decline ABC wave C wave situation
The completion form of the trend reversal failure type candle implying the continuous decline of the C wave of the one-month candle bar. ( This will mean a resistance of 25k in the future. )
Uncertainty of the indicator that it is a real trough shown by the indicator of the previous trough that has been continuously presented.
Uncertainty of divergence in one-week candles of Huobi Exchange with different candle closing times and 4-day divergence of existing exchanges
Based on these points, we are considering several scenarios for the future chart direction.
1. At present, the occurrence of a downward C wave of intense complete surrender that breaks the uncertainty of divergence that exists.
To this end, a candle that suggests a trend reversal from the current period will not form. A scenario for discarding this assumption would be to show a move above the 22k near the previous high.
2. This is an upward progress scenario through stronger upward divergence through support and rebound in the 18,400 , 17,400 section, which is the 786 or 1 point of the trend Fibonacci.
I think this will be similar to the rise before the corona outbreak.
3. This is a scenario where the short-term B correction wave ends and C wave rises through divergence while keeping the low in the current section ( 19500 ). Personally, I don't think the reliability is high yet.
In the previous analysis, it was an inflection point, so the analysis was simple to some extent and it was possible to proceed with a definite transaction, but now the trend is in progress. And it should be taken into account that the trend has progressed and a movement close to 20% has occurred, which is an area that requires a real-time response after unfolding various scenarios and keeping a close eye on the candle.
Personally, I am thinking of Scenario 1 in that the market has finished an unusually huge rise, a decline is in progress, and the end of that decline is reached. We talked about the number of cases.
First of all, if it does not come near or even near 20850 USD, which is 0.236 points, my strength for scenario 1 will be a little more.
I would appreciate it if you could look at it as one opinion.
upper resistance price range : 22,000 USD
Important price support points in case of decline : 18,400 - 17,450 - 14,700 - 12,000 - 10,000 ( fight zone !! )
Note
I think the profit/loss ratio of Scenario 3 is very good now. There is only a 2-3% loss risk!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.