Today, suddenly the thought came to me that there actually has been a bullish example with a 1D Candle Close below the relevant level: August 2023.
So this shifts my bias more to a neutral level (but still more to the short side).
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The last two weeks have been parculiar: a two week consolidation?...
That makes me think a big move is coming (because price can get above this consolidation, then below and then big breakdown, or price can get below (has to be an SFP), then get above and then a big pump).
So this is what now have and it's all about the 3rd February low (dashed line):
- I don't want an SFP of the previous SFP which provided the long setup (13jan low). I want the HL SFP of the 3rd feb low for bullish HTF trend continuation. If you look at this chart on the 1D, with the outstanding 3rd feb wick + the horizontality that followed (the 2 week consolidation), an 1D SFP would look very clean and promising -----------> the horizontality creates the pathway to trend continuation because the resistance created by the structure after the highest high SFP gets less and less as the horizontality continues. IF we get the SFP which closes back in the structure, there likely will be a big pump coming.
- If price however goes up to the other dashed line (resistance level dashed line), WITHOUT hitting the support-level dashed line FIRST, I'm pretty sure we don't get HTF trend continuation. Because: there hasn't been significant PA (like an SFP) at the bottom, so price doesn't have the strength to push up, so the likelyhood of a LH is very high. This then would lead to LL, getting below that 2 weeks consolidation, which would then lead to a big breakdown to I think 48k low.
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Comparing August 2023 environment to this environment:
- The 1D SFP candle of at the highs looks now worse then in August 2023.
- In August 2023 price had clean MS where price made the HL after the SFP at the highs. Now there hasn't been clean MS: there's no last HL in MS. Though I'm always more convinced of big SFP wicks for HL's instead of normal MS HL's. I view the 13jan SFP therefore as the last HL, that's why I don't want it to get hit.
Environment comparison conclusion: I actually like the current environment more than August 2023 environment for HTF trend continuation (thus, bullish) AS LONG AS we get an outstanding SFP wick of the 13rd january low.
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Note: I wrote this on the Binance spot chart but the Binance perps chart is the main BTC chart. The SFP I'm looking for wille therefore be determined on the perps chart, not this one, though the likelyhood of identical PA on these two charts is high as there likely won't be a 'liquidation event' as there's no verticality possible in the chart.
So this shifts my bias more to a neutral level (but still more to the short side).
----------------------
The last two weeks have been parculiar: a two week consolidation?...
That makes me think a big move is coming (because price can get above this consolidation, then below and then big breakdown, or price can get below (has to be an SFP), then get above and then a big pump).
So this is what now have and it's all about the 3rd February low (dashed line):
- I don't want an SFP of the previous SFP which provided the long setup (13jan low). I want the HL SFP of the 3rd feb low for bullish HTF trend continuation. If you look at this chart on the 1D, with the outstanding 3rd feb wick + the horizontality that followed (the 2 week consolidation), an 1D SFP would look very clean and promising -----------> the horizontality creates the pathway to trend continuation because the resistance created by the structure after the highest high SFP gets less and less as the horizontality continues. IF we get the SFP which closes back in the structure, there likely will be a big pump coming.
- If price however goes up to the other dashed line (resistance level dashed line), WITHOUT hitting the support-level dashed line FIRST, I'm pretty sure we don't get HTF trend continuation. Because: there hasn't been significant PA (like an SFP) at the bottom, so price doesn't have the strength to push up, so the likelyhood of a LH is very high. This then would lead to LL, getting below that 2 weeks consolidation, which would then lead to a big breakdown to I think 48k low.
-----------------------
Comparing August 2023 environment to this environment:
- The 1D SFP candle of at the highs looks now worse then in August 2023.
- In August 2023 price had clean MS where price made the HL after the SFP at the highs. Now there hasn't been clean MS: there's no last HL in MS. Though I'm always more convinced of big SFP wicks for HL's instead of normal MS HL's. I view the 13jan SFP therefore as the last HL, that's why I don't want it to get hit.
Environment comparison conclusion: I actually like the current environment more than August 2023 environment for HTF trend continuation (thus, bullish) AS LONG AS we get an outstanding SFP wick of the 13rd january low.
--------------------------
Note: I wrote this on the Binance spot chart but the Binance perps chart is the main BTC chart. The SFP I'm looking for wille therefore be determined on the perps chart, not this one, though the likelyhood of identical PA on these two charts is high as there likely won't be a 'liquidation event' as there's no verticality possible in the chart.
Note
^ "AS LONG AS we get an outstanding SFP wick of the 13rd january low" should've been the 3rd february low ofcourse.Note
To emphasize: this 3rd of february low is not a level to buy. The reaction to this level could however create a future buy opportunity higher up (around 95k likely). If you want to put a limit order somewhere to test your luck: the low of 12 November 2024 is the right level, $89159.9.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.