Bitcoin technical and fundamental analysis #1
Bitcoin is looking pretty explosive here. Bitcoin has gone totally flat over the last few months and it has been just chopping around. Right now it is sitting at the exact average of all prices over the last few weeks/months. At the 50 DMA, Monthly P and the Volume Profile PoC.
This has come right after the most crucial correction so far. We finally broke the 50 DMA after the two perfect touches screamed for breakdown, got close to the 128 DMA, touched the S2F 463DMA model, hit the Volume profile HVN, Golden ratio x2 multiplier AND the NVT price model. Couldn't have gotten any better... Or could it? We got a complete wipe out of longs at that point and funding has remained very low, the lowest around 57k. Essentially that was the best shakeout that bottomed at the best potential bottom.
Alts have been trending higher vs BTC for 4 months and they still look strong. Eventually a lot of that money will flow back into BTC. A lot of the BTC sold has gone to strong hands and a big portion of the people who sold that BTC most likely bought alts with it, so when the flows reverse BTC could fly. Until then alts are a bit of an issue because BTC might suffer if Ethereum or others flip it in the short term. The altcoin top in my opinion will come either at the end of May or end of June and then BTC will start its rally... But until then we could see some incredible things there.
I wouldn't be surprised if BTC has a rally to 70-80k and then has a major correction. This could come along with the large cap top and then small caps start rallying again like we saw in Feb-March. Until then going down to 51k isn't impossible, but I think that would be the bottom and we wouldn't go lower. If we go to 40k from here I will be very surprised given that things haven't gotten that hot yet. Funding rates across the board remain pretty low and just a few weeks ago we had a 30% correction which is usually enough for a bottom. For now I don't think 60k will break in one go, however I don't think it will take long either.
So to me the question is more like will Ethereum rallying hard affect Bitcoin negatively? So far it looks like it. I don't believe the bull market is close to being over... Not even remotely. But BTC might suffer as alts go higher until either alts get too high and reverse or there is a catalyst for Bitcoin to rally. In my opinion these big rallies in alts will eventually force Bitcoin to correct along with them and at one point BTC will start rallying alone. However the truth is that my beliefs around the market and around Bitcoin are currently being tested given how many things alts have going for them, and more specifically Ethereum. If Bitcoin gets dethroned, that could be very damaging for the price even vs USD in the short term. At least until Ethereum fails...
This has come right after the most crucial correction so far. We finally broke the 50 DMA after the two perfect touches screamed for breakdown, got close to the 128 DMA, touched the S2F 463DMA model, hit the Volume profile HVN, Golden ratio x2 multiplier AND the NVT price model. Couldn't have gotten any better... Or could it? We got a complete wipe out of longs at that point and funding has remained very low, the lowest around 57k. Essentially that was the best shakeout that bottomed at the best potential bottom.
Alts have been trending higher vs BTC for 4 months and they still look strong. Eventually a lot of that money will flow back into BTC. A lot of the BTC sold has gone to strong hands and a big portion of the people who sold that BTC most likely bought alts with it, so when the flows reverse BTC could fly. Until then alts are a bit of an issue because BTC might suffer if Ethereum or others flip it in the short term. The altcoin top in my opinion will come either at the end of May or end of June and then BTC will start its rally... But until then we could see some incredible things there.
I wouldn't be surprised if BTC has a rally to 70-80k and then has a major correction. This could come along with the large cap top and then small caps start rallying again like we saw in Feb-March. Until then going down to 51k isn't impossible, but I think that would be the bottom and we wouldn't go lower. If we go to 40k from here I will be very surprised given that things haven't gotten that hot yet. Funding rates across the board remain pretty low and just a few weeks ago we had a 30% correction which is usually enough for a bottom. For now I don't think 60k will break in one go, however I don't think it will take long either.
So to me the question is more like will Ethereum rallying hard affect Bitcoin negatively? So far it looks like it. I don't believe the bull market is close to being over... Not even remotely. But BTC might suffer as alts go higher until either alts get too high and reverse or there is a catalyst for Bitcoin to rally. In my opinion these big rallies in alts will eventually force Bitcoin to correct along with them and at one point BTC will start rallying alone. However the truth is that my beliefs around the market and around Bitcoin are currently being tested given how many things alts have going for them, and more specifically Ethereum. If Bitcoin gets dethroned, that could be very damaging for the price even vs USD in the short term. At least until Ethereum fails...
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.