Short

CAD/CHF continues selling

Updated

CAD/CHF will continue selling after a healthy pullback on oversold levels. It has already done 38.2% pullback and is near 50% levels. Selling pressure will resume at 0.743-0.745 levels as 50% pullback also matches the bearish pattern seen on H4. Keep in mind that there is a bullish ABCD pattern on weekly chart which indicates a buying opportunity just below 0.722. Good long term buying level would be at 0.68-0.706

This selling idea is supported by concerns over the WTI oil price and CHF strength due to safe heaven demand at the moment.

Note

SL could be set 60 pip above the entry, first TP 100 pip down, second - another 80. Risk reward ratio 1:3

Note

Oil got capped at 51 USD and on poor data is pulling CAD down. Idea has proved to be valid and will work well over the coming 4-5 days

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On USD weakness Oil is rising, nothing to worry about as pattern said - up to 0.7435 is ok, with SL at 0.75. We will see a fall.

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For those on lower margin levels - I would advise moving Stop Loss to Break Even as we have moved 50 pip down and it should be safe to do so. First take profit level should be reached by the end of the week.

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Although the price has surpassed my pattern by about 20 pips, I still deem it as valid and first target should be hit this week.

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The price is about to close below 0.74 with a full 4h candle and that should confirm further move down.

Trade closed manually

Closing this trade as 4H chart is starting to turn up. Taking the minimal profit I have and will look for a better entry. 4H chart failed to make a lower low and that may turn the downtrend into a longer lasting one offering a better entry in future.

Note

Reopened sell as yesterday 3Drives and ABCD bearish patterns were developed right after the news. Oil did not gain traction and thus pulling CAD down. The targets remain the same.

Trade active

Trade closed: stop reached

0.75 has been reached and on second attempt it does not go down. minimal profit on the first attempt barely covers the loss in this sale. We have to leave the sell for a while and revert to daily and weekly chart. Weekly chart is showing bullish move up.

Erland

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