CBA short, then comes back in 2025
based on the current situation with bonds and interest rates, cba will correct. reflecting a correction in house prices. I think the correction will be mild to medium (15-25% from here) putting CBA down to about $62 a share or lower reflecting increase in bad debt, lower consumer sentiment.
it will be held low throughout 2023 as the market finds its feet (XJO would have tanked to 5400 by then) and there would still be uncertainty regarding inflation and the recession. mid 2023 should see inflation invert to deflation reflecting a year on year reduction from this years prices to 2023 prices ( i think we are temporarily over elevated) i still think we are in a net inflationary period however there could be residual overshoot in 2022 which will correct in 2023 sending CPI into deflationary territory.
it will be held low throughout 2023 as the market finds its feet (XJO would have tanked to 5400 by then) and there would still be uncertainty regarding inflation and the recession. mid 2023 should see inflation invert to deflation reflecting a year on year reduction from this years prices to 2023 prices ( i think we are temporarily over elevated) i still think we are in a net inflationary period however there could be residual overshoot in 2022 which will correct in 2023 sending CPI into deflationary territory.
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