CHFNOK - Sell at the bend
Updated
Long term up trend CHFNOK is finished. Norway is accelerating thx to stimulus being put into the economy which has kick-started and enormous amount of infrastructure builds around the country. Oil industry is done with its "cleanup" on jobs with new job openings up 56% in the oil region in nov/des. Housing market fundamentals in Oslo is overheating with the West-coast having bottomed. All evident in listings for sale and rental market activity. Projections for 10bbls of oil find in the Barents Sea (north) at 55-level Brent holds some very interesting possibilities of what lays in-store (projections of 10bbls has just been made). Regional banks on the west-coast is a winner on the stock exchange this year having skirted the major loss projections announced back in time. Furthermore, interest rate cycle has bottomed and entry specific safe guards added on the Oslo small flats market carries further evidence of an end of rate cut cycle. Governmental focus on upstarts has generated tax cuts for companies from 28% down to 24% in 2017 (23% in 2018) and the lessening of banks lending requirements for SMEs (new 2017) will jolt the job creation into the new year. The opposite picture is true in Switzerland with stagnant Q3 growth, soft housing markets (Geneva especially) and big industries like tourism and watches continuing to shed sales and earnings due to a problematically high CHF. The overlaying picture show ECB in April cutting its QE program and thus forward the leak of the weak into CHF will be stopping somewhere in first half 2017. Generally a 7-handle is coming up fast as we now move out of the low liquidity period that hits the NOK during the xmas periods. January stars with Norwegian Central bank uping its sale of foreign currencies at a new record to cover the state-budget requirements for 2017 - this should continue as the expansionary features of the 2017-budget will require exchanges above normal.
Trade active
New short CHFNOK after temperory closing of 8.37 seem to hold potential for continuation of long-term trend. Opening short on monday open.Note
CHFNOK luvs the DXY weakness. Also Swiss economy and housing is at peak and showing sings for foreigners selling ski-homes and regulars homes cross the board. There is also enormous outflows (15billion CHF in NOV+DEC from UBS alone) due to the tax sharing arrangement coming into affect in 2017. This seem to have created and abundance of vacancies in rental and owner market for apartments in Geneva especially. UBS bubble index at all time high with rents falling....All little trickles that probably will form a river out of CHF.
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