US Oil WTI CL1! May
Updated
Oil Update. Refer related US OIl WTI CLK7 tag
Hit my $52 ellipse.
Open Producer positions have dropped to 638k Short and 379k Long net short 259k vs 253k
Managed Money positions are 116k and 344k respectively; net 228k vs 210k last week
May open Interest is 482k down from 586k
I am expecting a drift upwards for the next few days then tailing off into contract close.
CL2! is 40 pts higher and 365k open positions so this position will gap open up. Do not rush a short at it because the forward months will retain the spread.
I believe the spreads will push out to July ("N") $52.95 and 153k OI
Immediate resistance and target is the red trend line at 53mid but I also believe this will be a pin.
If you are long, look to close out now at high $52 to low $53 then wait for the new contract to settle in.
If you are short then you should have already been out! If you want to short this then I believe your RR will be narrow as this will drift into cessation. There is not much left on this red dwarf but it has served us well.
Thank you
... just my 2c worth ...
Hit my $52 ellipse.
Open Producer positions have dropped to 638k Short and 379k Long net short 259k vs 253k
Managed Money positions are 116k and 344k respectively; net 228k vs 210k last week
May open Interest is 482k down from 586k
I am expecting a drift upwards for the next few days then tailing off into contract close.
CL2! is 40 pts higher and 365k open positions so this position will gap open up. Do not rush a short at it because the forward months will retain the spread.
I believe the spreads will push out to July ("N") $52.95 and 153k OI
Immediate resistance and target is the red trend line at 53mid but I also believe this will be a pin.
If you are long, look to close out now at high $52 to low $53 then wait for the new contract to settle in.
If you are short then you should have already been out! If you want to short this then I believe your RR will be narrow as this will drift into cessation. There is not much left on this red dwarf but it has served us well.
Thank you
... just my 2c worth ...
Note
Hello Followers and readers:Just some update info which I hope will be of interest.
1. This is an extract of my response to a fellow TV's comments: -
CL1! contract expires on April 20.
Those open positions will roll if they are non-deliverable.
The MM trade has mostly moved already.
The "Crowd" is decreasing: MM longs down to 344 from 449 (Feb 21); MM shorts 116k down 19k this week from recent high at 449 Feb 21 but well off their lows of 43k.
This last point is interesting for future trading. Watch the MM short interest 8 weeks out from contract expiration. If it is very low vs their longs expect a market sell-off similar to Mar 7+, as they will use shorts to close their open longs rather than "just close and quit" especially if their longs are in the money.
The producers (Commercials) remain market lock-stepped. When you look at CoT open only the commercials and you will see this lock -step. There is little change on the spread.
They are hedging and will not significantly change their positions as they win either way. It is the hedge funds that will effect (ie to change not affect) the greater market movement.
Note
2. This is an update and link for Open Interest on WTI as at April 7.cmegroup.com/tools-information/quikstrike/options-open-interest-profile-energy.html
In summary:
K (May) decreasing down to 430k and falling; M (June) increasing towards 400k
N up a bit; Z very high 2's but steady
3. Options on May
WTI Options position as at April 7 (Preliminary)
Open Calls 1.829m of which 82k (4.4%) are in the money
Open Puts 1.238m of which 22k are in the money
Net Open on May (Puts and Calls) 440k for a net 60k "exersize-able".
May options expire 3 days before Futures.
My position on May remains unchanged from my earlier post of today.
If I can close in low 53's I will be happy
Thank you for your interest (Views) and support (likes)
... just a further 2c worth
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