Targeting price to rebound once it has reached the yellow box area on the left that coincides with the 61.8% retracement and 161.8% projection levels. Must watch closely for reversal signals once it reached the prior levels at 38.2% and 50% levels too. I'm expecting price to resume for uptrend soon.
MACD bullish divergence and crossover might help to confirm the reversal. Oversold and bullish divergence at RSI (14) might add up the reversal signals too.
Happy trading!
Disclaimer: These targets are just probabilities. It might go lower or higher than what I've forecasted.
Note
The 38.2% area is a definitely must watch area for potential reversal. By comparing the yellow and the red rectangle box, we can see that it is a very strong support area.
Note
As I've mentioned, the 38.2% area is a must watch area for potential reversal. The obvious signals at 4H were:
1. Hammer / dragonfly doji.
2. Bullish divergence at MACD histogram (the gold coloured slanting trendline)
3. Completed wave count for the zigzag ABC corrective wave. Wave C had 5 legs (the magenta coloured numbers).
...and all the signals occurred at a very strong support area (the red rectangle box).
Furthermore, the next green candle (marked by the red arrow) managed to close above the monthly resistance at 73.34. The price then retraced to the monthly support and bounce back (marked by the green arrow). That should give a strong hint for uptrend resumption.
However, let's be cautious because more confirmation is needed. It's possible that this wave 4 will be a complex correction. It means price can go sideways for a few more days before it's ready to fly high again. The weekly resistance (green lines) at 74.60 and 75.71 is the next key levels that we need to monitor.
To the contrary, price might go further down. Who knows, right? Haha...we are in the corrective phase at monthly time frame. Corrective phase is very hard to predict.
Just trade base on the signals that we can see at the chart. I seconded the advice from Elliot, Wyckoff and one of my coaches:- WE DON'T NEED NEWS TO TRADE.
We can't control the news / fundamental data. Sometimes the big boys used it to manipulate the retailers to acquire more contracts by creating moves to purposely hit the stop losses of other traders.
My coach worked many years in Reuters. He knows the inside out of media companies. He advised his students to not trade base on news. Everything that we need to make decisions, is on the chart. I've seen the proof of it countless of times.
Happy trading!
Note
Hi all,
As I've mentioned, the weekly resistance at 74.60 (green line) is one of the key level for us to watch. Price crossed the line but didn't managed to close above it. That was a hint that price was forming wave b (in red) and would reverse down again to complete wave c (5 legs). It was just a very short term upward movement from 72.14.
Now, upward reversal is obvious. The signals were based on:-
1. Price action
(a) Reversal candle (hammer)
(b) Jerk below but then bounce up at monthly support area at 69.30 (red line)
(c) Bounce at the yellow daily trendline
(d) Wave c bounce at the 161.8% of wave a area. That is one of the common targets for wave c.
2. Elliott Wave - It's possible for the impulsive (5 legs) wave c had been completed.
3. Indicator - MACD histogram showed bullish divergence (blue line).
I believed price is about to move up. Even if I'm wrong, I don't think price will close below the white shaded box at the area of 61.8% fibo level at daily time frame.
Again, 74.60 and 75.71 are the key levels we need to watch to prove the uptrend resumption. Price had been moving up from 63.59 like a raging bull. It's possible that price is forming the big B, and then falters again. Thus, completing the complex correction for wave 4 that might be a double or triple corrective wave.
Note
I'm outside right now. Just now I forgot to plot an alternate wave count for wave c. Anyway, it is possible that price is making the last leg of wave c, which might break below the previous low. I'm waiting for the current 4H candle to conclude and see whether if there is any reversal candle being formed. If there is, I'll zoom in to smaller time frame to do the subwaves count and try to get the best possible price to long.
Note
Price already retraced until 72% of wave 3. That is a very deep retracement for wave 4 and there is no sign of reversal candle yet. Nevertheless, my wave count is still valid unless it overlaps the top of wave 1 at 65.96 and stays there for some time. If that happens, I need to plot an alternate wave count starting from the rally at 63.59 until the top at 75.27 soon.
However, let's not be hasty. In this type of market condition, it's better to focus on price action and make profit out of it. The time will come where we'll have a better picture to plot the high probability correct wave count.
After all, everything is just a probability. ;)
Note
Price fall below 65.98 at 13th August 2018. That the invalidation point. I'll share my new analysis soon.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.