Crude Oil (WTI)
Updated
This looks like it is poised to head back into a well established $70-$80 range (and then some!). Anticipated long-term USD strength, as well as extended Global economic weakness bodes well for an enduring price weakness outlook.
Technically, Crude is at a major pivot, both, at the top of a rising daily channel, as well as at the top of a descending weekly channel trend line, resulting in a significant confluence region - both of those having price-negative connotation.
The Daily (main signal);
SHORT on any reversal!
... and the 240 min. (secondary signal);
Technically, Crude is at a major pivot, both, at the top of a rising daily channel, as well as at the top of a descending weekly channel trend line, resulting in a significant confluence region - both of those having price-negative connotation.
The Daily (main signal);
SHORT on any reversal!
... and the 240 min. (secondary signal);
Note
Here, clearly the differential is what matters, indicative of expectations and future commercial positioning.
Additionally, year over year EU energy costs have increased +122%, totaling 665 Billion Euros vs. 300 Billion Euros one year earlier.
Note
"Putin's friends" in the war in the UkraineThe main irony - as is often the case in any war - lies in the "diverse economic interests", usually far removed from the front lines. Ukraine's case is no different but this is about something far more simple.
With Ukraine's oil refining capacity fully destroyed, where does the fuel, necessary to conduct any modern military operation, come from?
The answer, ironic as it may be, is strait forward: From the Russian Federation.
Ukrainian tanks continue to roll against Russian positions, enabled by Russian crude oil. First shipped to Hungary and Turkey where it is refined into diesel fuel by the Hungarian state owned MOL and Turkey's Tüpraş, refined in Izmir. It is then transported by rail back towards the Ukrainian front lines.
To further the irony, the US and it's EU allies continue to bash Turkey, and especially Hungary, accusing them of supporting the Russian war effort - i.e, "friends of Putin", including putting Hungary's largest bank (OTP) on the terrorist watch list.
I propose a simple solution to eliminate any further, potential misunderstandings among friends and to show Hungary's and Turkey's undying commitment to their allies and the Ukrainian cause; Stop refining Russian crude oil and thus, choke off support for Putin's evil war effort!
... and that same day Ukrainian tanks will be converted into horse-drawn artillery, having had ran out of fuel, for good.
Want to put an end to that war? Keep screwing with your allies, especially with those who keep your side rolling.
Trade active
Everything seems to be pointing in the same direction;SHORT
Note
... and there it goes!Note
RBOB - WeeklyWe've been running this trade on X(Twitter)
twitter.com/arl_capital/status/1705629060796240222
but totally forgot to post it here. Our bad!! Hopefully better late than never? ...
Anyways, +23% on these Shorts, with no end in sight!
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