With crude having a bottom firming up at $70, the short term trend indicates continued movement higher with a short term price target between 74 - 76 (50 / 200 EMA). This buying is supported with the 5/16 COT report showing a large increase in the net long positions of the producer category indicating an anticipation of increasing prices. The last time the producers saw this fast of an increase in net holdings crude prices jumped off of the mid 60’s saw price move up to 75 before the big gap up to 80’s. Based on the current price action and supporting future and options support, we should see a similar movement upwards. However with the strong resistance around 76, I don’t think the price is likely to move higher without some sort of external factors.
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