Coinbase Update
Today price fell over 5% to the downside. It was a pretty strong move and not one I would expect to happen during a c wave. This has me wondering if we have officially finished (B). We could still get another high to the 0.618-0.786 area @ $246.64-$263.82 as the micros suggest a move up soon. How high that raise will be, idk. It could be extremely minimal and just cause chop until it finally breaks to the downside. The 4HR MACD is just beginning to move to the downside as you can see at the bottom of the chart. We're also still trading on negative divergence. Crypto should be finished or finishing their respective B waves. Needless to say, signs are starting to pile up hinting the move up is either finished or near complete. As I mentioned last night, all that's left are scraps. Instead of risking capital on the end of this pattern, I'll wait until we make it into my target box before I buy in again.
The next move coming is wave (C). This means we could either get a 3-wave or 5-wave move with the latter being the most common. Typically wave 4's (which this is) should end around the 0.382 but not past the 0.5. No rules say it can't go past the 0.5 retracement fib, but generally if it is that deep, you're usually dealing with something other than a wave 4. That is why the huge box goes from the 0.236-0.5 fib ($184.02-$113.48). If we have in fact topped in wave (B), then we can use the extension fibs to help refine that target box. That is why I have made a box in the box lol. This more refined target goes from the 1.0-1.618 of the (A)-(B) move ($159.83-$124.71). Once we get some more data from the beginning of (C), I can make an even more refined/smaller target box.
The next move coming is wave (C). This means we could either get a 3-wave or 5-wave move with the latter being the most common. Typically wave 4's (which this is) should end around the 0.382 but not past the 0.5. No rules say it can't go past the 0.5 retracement fib, but generally if it is that deep, you're usually dealing with something other than a wave 4. That is why the huge box goes from the 0.236-0.5 fib ($184.02-$113.48). If we have in fact topped in wave (B), then we can use the extension fibs to help refine that target box. That is why I have made a box in the box lol. This more refined target goes from the 1.0-1.618 of the (A)-(B) move ($159.83-$124.71). Once we get some more data from the beginning of (C), I can make an even more refined/smaller target box.
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Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
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