Coinbase Q1 Earnings Highlights BUT I STAY SHORT
Updated
TREND STRONG SELL
I love the WALLSTREET: Everytime the reports are beyond the estimates of the Wallstreet I sell.
My axxuacy is far beyond 75%.
Why does it work?
Everytime the news are released, the big boys have aleady taken profits, and now the gonna for better prices o better to make more money in the opposite direction. That is what I call the smart money
I do not care if I like the name or the company or the product, when I trade.
Emotions are your enemies,when trading.
You heard expressions like
Never catch a falling knife
There is time to go long, time to go short and time to go fishing.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore
“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” – John Maynard Keynes
“Most people, whether bull or bear, when they are right, are right for the wrong reason, in my opinion.” – Jesse Lauriston Livermore
“Someone will always be getting richer faster than you. This is not a tragedy.” – Charlie Munger
“The trend is your friend except at the end where it bends.” — Ed Seykota
What is a Falling Knife?
A falling knife is a colloquial term for a rapid drop in the price or value of a security. The term is commonly used in phrases like, "don't try to catch a falling knife," which can be translated to mean, "wait for the price to bottom out before buying it." A falling knife can quickly rebound - in what's known as a whipsaw—or the security may lose all of its value, as in the case of a bankruptcy.
Falling knife refers to a sharp drop, but there is no specific magnitude or duration to the drop before it constitutes a falling knife.
A falling knife is generally used as a caution not to jump into a stock or other asset during a drop.
Traders will trade on a sharp drop, but they generally want to be in a short position and will use technical indicators to time their trades.
What a Falling Knife Tells You
The term falling knife suggests that buying into a market with a lot of downward momentum can be extremely dangerous—just like trying to catch an actual falling knife. In practice, however, there are many different profit points with a falling knife. If timed perfectly, a trader that buys at the bottom of a downtrend can realize a significant profit as the price recovers. Likewise, piling into a short position as the price falls and getting out before a rebound can be profitable. Moreover, even buy and hold investors can use a falling knife as a buy opportunity provided they have a fundamental case for owning the stock.
That said, there is a very real risk that the timing will be off and there could be significant losses before any gains. So many traders still pay lip service to the adage. Instead of trying to "catch the falling knife," traders should look for confirmation of a trend reversal using other technical indicators and chart patterns. An example of a confirmation could be as simple as waiting for several days of upward momentum after the fall or looking at the relative strength index (RSI) for signs of a stronger uptrend before buying into the new trend.
CONCLUSION: The trend direction is short! BASTA! The short volumes are high what means more selles are enthusiastic to risk more money in short direction.
Fundamentals:
Although the Q1 reportings where positive the market paticipants have not been enthusiastic. No bull volume, no, new Higher Hihs. Instead the market did the opposite: Wallstreet went short. IF THIS IS BEYOND THE ESTIMATES:THEN I decide to sell more on weakness.
I love the WALLSTREET: Everytime the reports are beyond the estimates of the Wallstreet I sell.
My axxuacy is far beyond 75%.
Why does it work?
Everytime the news are released, the big boys have aleady taken profits, and now the gonna for better prices o better to make more money in the opposite direction. That is what I call the smart money
I do not care if I like the name or the company or the product, when I trade.
Emotions are your enemies,when trading.
You heard expressions like
Never catch a falling knife
There is time to go long, time to go short and time to go fishing.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore
“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” – John Maynard Keynes
“Most people, whether bull or bear, when they are right, are right for the wrong reason, in my opinion.” – Jesse Lauriston Livermore
“Someone will always be getting richer faster than you. This is not a tragedy.” – Charlie Munger
“The trend is your friend except at the end where it bends.” — Ed Seykota
What is a Falling Knife?
A falling knife is a colloquial term for a rapid drop in the price or value of a security. The term is commonly used in phrases like, "don't try to catch a falling knife," which can be translated to mean, "wait for the price to bottom out before buying it." A falling knife can quickly rebound - in what's known as a whipsaw—or the security may lose all of its value, as in the case of a bankruptcy.
Falling knife refers to a sharp drop, but there is no specific magnitude or duration to the drop before it constitutes a falling knife.
A falling knife is generally used as a caution not to jump into a stock or other asset during a drop.
Traders will trade on a sharp drop, but they generally want to be in a short position and will use technical indicators to time their trades.
What a Falling Knife Tells You
The term falling knife suggests that buying into a market with a lot of downward momentum can be extremely dangerous—just like trying to catch an actual falling knife. In practice, however, there are many different profit points with a falling knife. If timed perfectly, a trader that buys at the bottom of a downtrend can realize a significant profit as the price recovers. Likewise, piling into a short position as the price falls and getting out before a rebound can be profitable. Moreover, even buy and hold investors can use a falling knife as a buy opportunity provided they have a fundamental case for owning the stock.
That said, there is a very real risk that the timing will be off and there could be significant losses before any gains. So many traders still pay lip service to the adage. Instead of trying to "catch the falling knife," traders should look for confirmation of a trend reversal using other technical indicators and chart patterns. An example of a confirmation could be as simple as waiting for several days of upward momentum after the fall or looking at the relative strength index (RSI) for signs of a stronger uptrend before buying into the new trend.
CONCLUSION: The trend direction is short! BASTA! The short volumes are high what means more selles are enthusiastic to risk more money in short direction.
Fundamentals:
Although the Q1 reportings where positive the market paticipants have not been enthusiastic. No bull volume, no, new Higher Hihs. Instead the market did the opposite: Wallstreet went short. IF THIS IS BEYOND THE ESTIMATES:THEN I decide to sell more on weakness.
Note
Goldmann Sachs announced To sell CoinBase with a pice target oing to 40-45$. I am shot at 341$Note
One big debate among investors about Coinbase Global is whether what the company charges to clients to trade is sustainable. So far in its short history, Coinbase has been able to charge relatively high prices compared to what traders of stocks might expect. Though this might seem like an advantage, many investors and analysts have flagged it as a weakness, presuming charges will come down as the crypto sector becomes more competitive.But the events of the last few months, with regulators bearing down on the industry, may have started to shift the perception that Coinbase’s higher prices are temporary. After all, it likely won't get easier to get into the crypto business anytime soon.
For several quarters in a row, Coinbase’s consumer “take rate”—which measures consumer net transaction revenue as a percentage of consumer trading volume—has surprised analysts, and by quite large margins in the most recent two quarters, according to estimates compiled by Visible Alpha. In the first quarter, the consumer take rate was 1.68%, versus a consensus expectation of less than 1.4%.
Coinbase Global Inc.
COIN (U.S.: Nasdaq)
$58.24 USD9.0218.33%
Note
Analysts call Coinbase’s ongoing regulatory battles a ‘major roadblock,’ say long-term outlook looks uncertain cnbc.com/2023/05/05/analysts-call-coinbases-regulatory-legal-battles-a-major-roadblock.htmlNote
Coinbase Escalates Its Fight With SEC Over Crypto RegulationSometimes people file lawsuits not because they think they will win, but because they know the lawsuit is the only way to ignite the kind of conversation that will effect meaningful change.
In recent days CoinbaseCOIN +18.3% took two important steps to accelerate the conversation on how crypto assets in the U.S. will be regulated. First it responded - and made public its response - to a “Wells Notice” served by the SEC on the company in late March. Then, it took the bold step of suing the SEC, albeit on a “narrow” administrative matter in a U.S. federal court, to underscore the issues it asserts are adversely impacting U.S. residents and their access to and use of crypto.
While acknowledging that the Wells Notice “is not a formal charge or lawsuit,” the Company said “it can lead to one” and outlined several areas of SEC focus including operating an unregistered exchange, clearing agency and broker as well as its wallet offering and staking activities. On each point, its publicly available response made convincing arguments against the SEC’s positions.
The question is what is the long game here - minimize corporate disruption from potentially crippling enforcement actions, delay any type of enforcement action for as long as possible, force a quick turnaround on the agency’s apparent positions contrary to the interest of the Company’s customers, or provide a catalyst for accelerated Congressional action. While SEC Chair Gary Gensler may be long gone by the time any of these issues wind their way through the agency or the courts, in the short term, substantial corporate resources are being deployed in what increasingly looks like war. Or, at the very least a massive offensive to encourage broad scale discussions on the issues, including the formation of the Crypto 435 (whose first opponent may be Elizabeth Warren’s Anti-Crypto Army.). .
As Coinbase is trying to enlist the crypto community through its grassroots efforts to get involved in advocacy, it is also adding some heavy artillery to its front line to carry on the legal offensive. It has hired an ex-Trump Cabinet member and two former federal enforcers. Coinbase’s outside legal team now includes former U.S. Labor Secretary Eugene Scalia, who is a Gibson Dunn partner, and two former enforcement directors—Steven Peikin (SEC) and James McDonald (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), both of whom now are Sullivan & Cromwell partners and who with colleague Kathleen McArthur, filed the Wells response on behalf of Coinbase. Each of the three charges clients more than $2,100 per hour, based on filings the firm made as part of its representation of FTX in the collapsed crypto exchange’s bankruptcy. Jay Clayton, the former SEC chair, is also of counsel at Sullivan & Cromwell, one of Wall Street’s priciest and best-known law firms..
The lawsuit filed by Scalia and his team at Gibson Dunn in the Third Circuit asks the court to compel the SEC to respond to a rule-making petition Coinbase filed last year to address a number of issues raised by the Company. Coinbase makes clear that it “is not asking the Court to instruct the agency how to respond. We are simply requesting that the Court order the SEC to respond at all, which they are legally obligated to.” Coinbase argues that the SEC is violating the Administrative Procedure Act by failing to respond within a reasonable time.
Note
more volume but bearish delta coming inNote
Australian-Based Lawyer States Why Coinbase Relisting XRP Won’t Happen Despite the Meeting between Ripple and CoinbaseDespite the recent meeting between the lead counsels of Coinbase and Ripple, Attorney Bill Morgan refuses to believe that the largest U.S.-based crypto exchange will relist XRP anytime soon.
Per a Thursday update, Ripple’s general counsel Stuart Alderoty and Paul Grewal, the chief legal officer at Coinbase had a meeting where Grewal spoke to the entire legal team of the Silicon Valley tech company. Reacting to the meeting Grewal thanked Alderoty for having him over, adding that they needed more of such meetups.
Accordingly, many XRP community members have been pouring different reactions over the recent meeting between the two General Counsels with some users suspecting that the relisting of XRP on Coinbase would come next.
In particular, a prominent XRP proponent and holder said, “Coinbase and Ripple CLOs meet, will XRP listing follow? Bill Morgan, an Australian-based pro-XRP lawyer replied, stating affirmatively that XRP relisting on the Coinbase trading platform will not happen due to the meeting with Grewal and Alderoty. “No, a Coinbase XRP listing will not follow,” he said.
Morgan cited the fact that Ripple itself has lessened support for the 6th largest crypto by market cap, hence the crypto solutions company should not be expecting Coinbase to support XRP on its trading platform either, he implied. Notably, Ripple recently launched a Liquidity Hub project that supports several crypto assets, excluding XRP.
Note
SEC vs Coinbase: This latest order may compel the SEC to make a moveThe Third Circuit Court of Appeals ordered the SEC to file a response to the mandamus petition entered by Coinbase.
In the next ten days, the SEC will have to clarify if it will comply with Coinbase’s request for rulemaking.
A U.S. court ordered the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to respond to the allegations made by American cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase within the next ten days.
Paul Grewal, Coinbase’s Chief Legal Officer, took to Twitter on 3 May to share the latest development in the intensifying legal battle.
Note
hould you be buying Coinbase Global stock or one of its competitors? The main competitors of Coinbase Global include Synchrony Financial (SYF), Lufax (LU), Mr. Cooper Group (COOP), Camden Property Trust (CPT), MarketAxess (MKTX), Aegon (AEG), American Homes 4 Rent (AMH), Healthpeak Properties (PEAK), Kimco Realty (KIM), and Host Hotels & Resorts (HST). These companies are all part of the "finance" sector.Note
Handelsbanken Fonder AB Makes New $271,000 Investment in Coinbase Global, Inc. (NASDAQ:COIN)Note
Brainard Capital Management LLC Invests $352,000 in Coinbase Global, Inc. (NASDAQ:COIN)Brainard Capital Management LLC acquired a new position in Coinbase Global, Inc. (NASDAQ:COIN) in the fourth quarter, according to its most recent 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The fund acquired 9,950 shares of the cryptocurrency exchange's stock, valued at approximately $352,000.
Note
SEC Attack on CoinbaseRecall that Coinbase received a Wells Notice from the SEC in March. For context, a Wells Notice is one of the final steps taken by the SEC before formal charges are issued against a company.
Responding to the Wells notice, Coinbase founder Brian Armstrong said that the exchange is prepared to fight regulators whose administrative and enforcement actions have become a threat to Coinbase businesses in the U.S. Also, the SEC has questioned Coinbase’s staking platform, declaring some of the supported cryptoassets securities that must be registered with the agency.
Note
Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) Shares Gap Down on Analyst DowngradeNote
Former Coinbase employee sentenced to two years in crypto insider trading caseSource yahoo
Note
#Coinbase strong #Bearish 👉4H,2H,30min. Chart bearish
👉12H,16H,21H Bearish
👉Daily,weekly, 30weekly bearish
Note
Some school kids asked me about Bitcoin and Cryptos. How would you explaine to a kid wht crypto is ,and debt cieling? Interesting is that they have heard about it....Imagine Bitcoin and cryptos as a special kind of digital treasure or virtual money.
more and more people are becoming interested in this digital treasure because they think it's valuable.
the Bitcoin price going up over time, like a roller coaster ride going higher and higher.
as more people want to own Bitcoin, its price increases because there is a limited amount available, just like rare toys or collectibles becoming more expensive when everyone wants them.
Understanding Volume and its Importance:
Volume means how much of something is being bought or sold
when there is a lot of buying and selling of Bitcoin (high volume), it shows that many people are interested in it, and this can affect its price.
Mention that high volume means there are lots of people who believe Bitcoin is valuable and want to own it, so its price can go up.
USA Debt Ceiling and Bitcoin's Rise:
Debt ceiling is like a limit or cap on how much money the government can borrow.
when there are concerns about the debt ceiling, it can create uncertainty about the economy and the value of regular money.
some people might think Bitcoin is a better choice because it's not controlled by any government and is seen as a more stable and valuable option.
that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum are related to these sectors because they can be used in various ways within them.
For example, in technology, people can use Bitcoin to buy computer parts or software.
a person using Bitcoin to buy a computer or video game.
In biotechnology, mention that Ethereum's technology can be used to create secure systems for storing medical records or sharing research data.
Sectors Benefiting from Bitcoin and Ethereum:
sectors where people want to make fast, secure, and global transactions can benefit from Bitcoin and Ethereum.
For online shopping, people can use Bitcoin or Ethereum to buy things quickly and securely without needing a credit card.
For gaming, some games allow players to earn or trade virtual items using cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or Ethereum.
Picture of a game character buying or selling virtual items with Bitcoin or Ethereum.
Note
Selling Pressure,Weakenning of UsDollar, thats good for Euro. Strong Euro is GOOD,no VERY GOOD for SP500;NASDAQ;DOW JONES; GOLD;BITCOIN;CRYPTOS: Everything against Dollar.Look also my NVIDIA Forecast Chart performed: Nailed it! Weak US DOllar also good for Tech Stocks, Bio Pharma and Tech have Highly positive correltions with Bitcoin and Ethereum, and vice versa. NVIDIA : Top Performer
Friday is the Big Day of the Week: aND IT WILL BE VERY BUISY. RGHT AFTER THE bELL PMI and Inflation DATA!
Note
Note
BTC Bears Target Sub-$26,000 on SEC v Binance and Ripple BattlesBTC was flat this morning, with regulatory uncertainty stemming from the SEC lawsuits against Ripple, Binance, and Coinbase testing buyer appetite.
The market structure and momentum of Bitcoin was bearish, but its bounce back above 26k gave bears some food for thought.
Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 turned negative over May. This meant that the index has an overall bullish outlook, but Bitcoin has trended in the opposite direction in recent weeks. The increasing hostility from regulatory bodies in the United States has played a part in BTC’s misfortunes on the price chart.
There was an argument to be made that Bitcoin showed some signs of recovery. Yet, an analysis of the price action showed that the bias remained in favor of the sellers. On the other hand, if Bitcoin climbs to 28k, it could signal an uptrend.
Can the bulls drive Bitcoin past 27.4k next?
The market structure of Bitcoin on the daily timeframe was bearish. The structure shifted on 21 April when BTC dipped below a recent higher low. Since then, the price has trended lower on the chart.
Moreover, the trading volume has been extremely low from April onward, compared to the volume seen in February and March. This was reflected on the OBV as well, which only went slightly lower in May in contrast to the rapid gains it posted in mid-March.
The Fibonacci levels based on the recent leg down show that Bitcoin was likely headed toward 24.8k. The 61.8% extension level at 23.3k was also a target it presented. The price action showed that the 24.2k-24.4k region could serve as strong support. Beneath that, the 22.4k and 21.5k levels were important.
To signal a bullish shift in the structure, Bitcoin prices must rise back above the recent lower high at 27.4k. Yet, an uptrend would not be established there, as BTC would need to form a higher low and continue higher. Cautious investors can wait for this turn of events before looking to buy.
On Saturday, BTC extended the winning streak to three sessions, gaining 0.67% to end the day at $26,535.
SEC v Binance news delivered a breakout morning session before profit-taking left BTC with modest gains.
The technical indicators turned bullish, signaling a return to $27,000.
On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) gained 0.67%. Following a 2.92% rally on Friday, BTC ended the day at $26,535. Significantly, BTC enjoyed its first three-day winning streak since May.
A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to an early afternoon low of $26,202. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $25,523, BTC rose to a late morning high of $26,857. However, falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $26,882, BTC eased back to sub-$26,500 and a range-bound afternoon session.
SEC v Binance News Delivered Brief Relief
On Saturday, news of Binance striking a deal to address the SEC’s motion to freeze Binance US assets supported a breakout morning.
Binance, Binance US, and the SEC agreed on a deal restricting access to customer funds to Binance US employees. The agreement prevents Binance Holdings staff from having access to private keys for US wallets.
The SEC filed a motion to freeze the assets of Binance US shortly after filing charges against Binance, Binance US, and Binance CEO CZ.
On Saturday, the US Court signed off on the deal, which allows Binance to repatriate all US customer funds and private keys onshore to nullify the motion to freeze.
While the news was positive, Binance US and Binance face charges that could drag on and further impact the US digital asset space.
Uncertainty toward the SEC v Ripple case remains another headwind, with optimism of a Ripple win fading after the release of the Hinman speech-related docs.
The Day Ahead
It is a quiet Sunday session, with no US economic indicators to provide direction. The lack of external market forces will leave BTC in the hands of the crypto market news wires.
SEC activity remains the focal point, with SEC v Ripple, Binance, and Coinbase (COIN)-related news likely to move the dial.
We also expect market sensitivity to lawmaker chatter. US lawmakers have remained silent on the William Hinman speech-related documents and the SEC charges against Binance and Coinbase.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action
This morning, BTC was down 0.05% to $26,523. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $26,551 before falling to a low of $26,410.
BTC Technical Indicators
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), the EMAs sent bullish signals. BTC sat above the 100-day EMA ($26,269). The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, sending bullish signals.
A move through the 200-day EMA ($26,654) would support a breakout from R1 ($26,861) to target R2 ($27,186). However, a fall through the 100-day EMA ($26,269) and S1 ($26,206) would bring the 50-day EMA ($26,059) into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.
Resistance & Support Levels
R1 – $ 26,861 S1 – $ 26,206
R2 – $ 27,186 S2 – $ 25,876
R3 – $ 27,841 S3 – $ 25,221
BTC needs to move through the $26,531 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $26,861 and $27,500. A move through the Saturday high of $26,857 would signal an extended bullish session. The crypto news wires should be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.
In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $27,186 and resistance at $27,500. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $27,841.
Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $26,206 in play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$26,000 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $25,876. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $25,221.
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