COVID-19 - Evolutionary Curve Forecast
Updated
Idea for COVID-19:
- We believe that the fight against COVID-19 has entered the mid game.
- Can COVID-19 be beaten in the game of evolution? We think so. Viruses are rational actors, and will behave as a population in the interests of their evolutionary fitness.
- While the media's narrative of "wave 3" of COVID-19 has spread and is widely known, Motive Wave 2 of COVID-19 will begin in June 2021 (new wave 1 2 3), which will end at the end of 2022.
Speculation:
- Global vaccinations and pandemic responses have introduced strong selective pressure on the virus since the beginning of the year.
- From summer to the end of the year, the virus will select a new dominant variant to dominate.
Expectations for the end of Motive Wave 2 (2022-2023):
- Uncontrolled Growth: 1.3 Billion+ infected, 21.8 Million+ deaths.
- Infectivity and Vaccine resistance: 900 Million+ infected, 21.8 Million+ deaths.
- Lethality: 470 Million+ infected, 16.4 Million+ deaths.
- Severity/and or Vaccine resistance (without infectivity): 320 Million+ infected, 10.9 Million+ deaths.
- Successful Vaccination: Infection should drop rapidly, but 5.4 Million+ deaths.
To model total deaths , we fit the % curve of the moving average:
Disclaimer:
We absolutely do not provide financial advice in any shape or form. We do not recommend investing based on our opinions and strongly cautions that securities trading and investment involves high risk and that you can lose a lot of money. Loss of principal is possible. We do not recommend risking money you cannot afford to lose. We do not guarantee future performance nor accuracy in historical analyses. We are not registered investment advisors. Our ideas, opinions and statements are not a substitute for professional investment advice. We provide ideas containing impersonal market observations and our opinions. Our speculations may be used in preparation to form your own ideas.
- We believe that the fight against COVID-19 has entered the mid game.
- Can COVID-19 be beaten in the game of evolution? We think so. Viruses are rational actors, and will behave as a population in the interests of their evolutionary fitness.
- While the media's narrative of "wave 3" of COVID-19 has spread and is widely known, Motive Wave 2 of COVID-19 will begin in June 2021 (new wave 1 2 3), which will end at the end of 2022.
Speculation:
- Global vaccinations and pandemic responses have introduced strong selective pressure on the virus since the beginning of the year.
- From summer to the end of the year, the virus will select a new dominant variant to dominate.
Expectations for the end of Motive Wave 2 (2022-2023):
- Uncontrolled Growth: 1.3 Billion+ infected, 21.8 Million+ deaths.
- Infectivity and Vaccine resistance: 900 Million+ infected, 21.8 Million+ deaths.
- Lethality: 470 Million+ infected, 16.4 Million+ deaths.
- Severity/and or Vaccine resistance (without infectivity): 320 Million+ infected, 10.9 Million+ deaths.
- Successful Vaccination: Infection should drop rapidly, but 5.4 Million+ deaths.
To model total deaths , we fit the % curve of the moving average:
Disclaimer:
We absolutely do not provide financial advice in any shape or form. We do not recommend investing based on our opinions and strongly cautions that securities trading and investment involves high risk and that you can lose a lot of money. Loss of principal is possible. We do not recommend risking money you cannot afford to lose. We do not guarantee future performance nor accuracy in historical analyses. We are not registered investment advisors. Our ideas, opinions and statements are not a substitute for professional investment advice. We provide ideas containing impersonal market observations and our opinions. Our speculations may be used in preparation to form your own ideas.
Trade active
The virus has opted for the infectivity and vaccine resistance path as of now.
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