Virus spread/Bacteria poluation/Ponzi scheme lifecycle
Updated
This is the most important chart of the next 12 weeks.
It always follows a similar pattern.
Top can happen at any time, but with the temperature spike of this week (right as europe & usa quarantine started) + lockdown + sun, it could be close actually.
One thing is clear: Fear is profitable. Can also lead to huge losses. And at what point does it just become random gambling?
Noobs will chase every move, or not cut their losses, or have a losing strategy, get emotional, either way, will get rekt.
The top can look many ways, like a weak diagonal up, flat, flat on average, sharp V, etc.
Here is the example of a ponzi scheme currently in the stationary phase:
Goldman sachs is calling for a Q2 growth number of -10% or something like this heh :D
The worse could be over, actually I totally expect the stock indices to have bottomed (for now) and go higher. BTC too.
Traders of course secretly wish it gets way worse, and are angry at politicians trying to save lives - allthought their actions do more harm than good and will hurt the economy badly which is good for us.
I won't lie, like I many I have dreamt (literally) of a catastrophy like this a few times. It's not that bad which is a shame, but it is something.
We are not here to look like caring people, we are here to make money at other's expense. What a wonderful period we are going through ^^
Every one is so afraid, terrified, reverting back to full reptilian brain (as opposed as only 99% usually), their primal fears are emerging, they do not make rational decisions, they would sell an obvious bottom at all time low Price to Earnings, allowing non-reptilian brains ("polite" people call it non-emotional) to make big profits.
Also moves are super violent and one sided, barely any retrace. HUGE rewards to risks. Fear panic death and misery is very profitable. And looks like it could get worse and much more people could get sick, lose their job, et caetera. AWESOME!
For the next weeks the driver I guess will be this chart here...
Let's check back on this every few days.
It always follows a similar pattern.
Top can happen at any time, but with the temperature spike of this week (right as europe & usa quarantine started) + lockdown + sun, it could be close actually.
One thing is clear: Fear is profitable. Can also lead to huge losses. And at what point does it just become random gambling?
Noobs will chase every move, or not cut their losses, or have a losing strategy, get emotional, either way, will get rekt.
The top can look many ways, like a weak diagonal up, flat, flat on average, sharp V, etc.
Here is the example of a ponzi scheme currently in the stationary phase:
Goldman sachs is calling for a Q2 growth number of -10% or something like this heh :D
The worse could be over, actually I totally expect the stock indices to have bottomed (for now) and go higher. BTC too.
Traders of course secretly wish it gets way worse, and are angry at politicians trying to save lives - allthought their actions do more harm than good and will hurt the economy badly which is good for us.
I won't lie, like I many I have dreamt (literally) of a catastrophy like this a few times. It's not that bad which is a shame, but it is something.
We are not here to look like caring people, we are here to make money at other's expense. What a wonderful period we are going through ^^
Every one is so afraid, terrified, reverting back to full reptilian brain (as opposed as only 99% usually), their primal fears are emerging, they do not make rational decisions, they would sell an obvious bottom at all time low Price to Earnings, allowing non-reptilian brains ("polite" people call it non-emotional) to make big profits.
Also moves are super violent and one sided, barely any retrace. HUGE rewards to risks. Fear panic death and misery is very profitable. And looks like it could get worse and much more people could get sick, lose their job, et caetera. AWESOME!
For the next weeks the driver I guess will be this chart here...
Let's check back on this every few days.
Note
Ah, here is a link to check temperatures of the past:wunderground.com/history/monthly/fr/paray-vieille-poste/LFPO/date/2009-4
Most cases happen at about 45°N, here is a quick map:
wordpress.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Unknown-1.png?w=632
Here is the article of this map:
accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/deep-dive-coronavirus-vs-population-and-temperatures/701036
Personally I think temperature is a big factor but not the only one and it's not a huge one, it does play a part.
And it makes sense, a cold virus becomes less and less resistant as T & Lux go up, but it is not binary, the less resistant it is, the less impact it will have, but still if you have full open borders and let infected people spit in your mouth I don't care if you live in Sudan, your odds will be higher than an italian confined at hom breathing through a mask.
To convert wunderground temperatures to serious units:
tononretard.com
All I want for christ- for emm easter? is a 50% global crash (oil crypto stocks).
Note
I recommend watching the recent numberphile (youtube channel) video on modelling the coronavirus curve(s).Note
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-saysEvery single death under 40 was people with serious pre-existing conditions.
People that die are obese smokers etc.
People that panic are young with low BMI, can't tell if they are smokers thought.
The whole world put on pause to protect fat lazy & old people.
Same old, same old.
Smoking and the obesity pandemic has existed for decades, they have been warned.
Not like "oh noes a terrible virus no one could have predicted this they did nothing wrong".
"Let's use trillions of taxpayers money to fuel a free medical system for old people in their last 6 months and for fat lazy smokers".
The west already asked the 1970-2010 generation to pay for retirements, to not be able to afford rent, and to suffer big inequality and a depression soon.
The consequences of asking a sacrifice of every one to protect fat basterds will be far worse than a few smokers dying or people like me hurting some feelings.
Boy did this pin pop the bubble.
Revolution or ww3 soon.
It's over.
Note
Just to clarify, as people and especially governments are too idiotic to find a measured response - it's either:- Lock everything down and act like it's the zombie apocalypse
- Full open borders & kiss asians off of planes from china to prove you aren't racist
THEN, a zombie apocalypse is better...
Plus after you not only let, but HELPED it spread, at some point you kinda have to do something, and it took those brainlets getting desperate...
We don't have ebola outbreaks in europe... Containing the wuhan coronavirus should have been simple...
Note
Some bullet point news:- ID specialists say there is a cure
- ID specialists say they have a vaccine that is simple to mass produce & administer
- Someone has found job postings & other documents China has been so bad at hiding, proving the virus started in a lab and they messed up and they tried covering it up (poorly)
- China mobile phone users have dropped by several millions...
- China just ordered 200,000 bodybags from Taiwan (...)
- Some people will rage at you for being a bear & pessimistic about this
- Some people (the same) will rage at you for being optimistic ("downplaying the threat")
- I think we are entering the stationary phase, the top of this lifecycle
Time for the US stock market 61.8% rally before the big crash/money printer goes brrr.
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