Long
CPB - looking good for H1 2022
Hi everyone,
Loved to pick this company as a conservative, I expect an average growth from it throughout 2022, which is better than the "who know when it will fall hard" situation in riskier assets.
Probably I will hold it all until mid-2022 for sure, and only reduce if tech has calmed down enough to be a good buy or it's price would reach a level that's not similarly sustainable than today's.
So let's look why I love it, and I think it came to a possible trend reversal in Q4 2021:
Fundamental quickie:
- Earnings are stable and growing
- PE ratio < 15 even after price rose 10%
- Debt to EBIDTA is decreasing since 2018.
To me there is no red flag fundamentally here, looks like a comfortable situation to get in.
Technical analysis:
- In a downtrend since 2016, LH's: $67 in 2016, $57 in 2019.
- Started from below 100W and 200W MA, and testing 100W, which is a price that technically won't be too much lower :)
- 50D MA has crossed up 100D MA (short-term indicator) and 100W looks like it will cross 200W (good omen for long-term)
- formed a smaller cup-and handle and now it forms a bigger one, I showed it on the chart -> if this one completes, that means crossing the downtrend line at $47 up to ~$51-52 and probably trending up after a re-test.
This all suggests me I had a good buy.
Expected scenario: reaching Crossing long-term MA lines, downtrend line and reaching $52+ until July (which would be a 25% gain in my case)
Worst-case scenario: bottoming again, $37 support line lowest.
If worst-case plays out my strategy would be to double holdings if new analysis suggests so.
Cheers,
Antonio
Loved to pick this company as a conservative, I expect an average growth from it throughout 2022, which is better than the "who know when it will fall hard" situation in riskier assets.
Probably I will hold it all until mid-2022 for sure, and only reduce if tech has calmed down enough to be a good buy or it's price would reach a level that's not similarly sustainable than today's.
So let's look why I love it, and I think it came to a possible trend reversal in Q4 2021:
Fundamental quickie:
- Earnings are stable and growing
- PE ratio < 15 even after price rose 10%
- Debt to EBIDTA is decreasing since 2018.
To me there is no red flag fundamentally here, looks like a comfortable situation to get in.
Technical analysis:
- In a downtrend since 2016, LH's: $67 in 2016, $57 in 2019.
- Started from below 100W and 200W MA, and testing 100W, which is a price that technically won't be too much lower :)
- 50D MA has crossed up 100D MA (short-term indicator) and 100W looks like it will cross 200W (good omen for long-term)
- formed a smaller cup-and handle and now it forms a bigger one, I showed it on the chart -> if this one completes, that means crossing the downtrend line at $47 up to ~$51-52 and probably trending up after a re-test.
This all suggests me I had a good buy.
Expected scenario: reaching Crossing long-term MA lines, downtrend line and reaching $52+ until July (which would be a 25% gain in my case)
Worst-case scenario: bottoming again, $37 support line lowest.
If worst-case plays out my strategy would be to double holdings if new analysis suggests so.
Cheers,
Antonio
Note
I don't like 21th January closing, it breaks the price pattern and is bearishly engulfing the handle part progress so far. It also has a large volume.I'd expect some consolidation from here together with S&P. In that case, let's see if a moving average (adding 200D to the picture) provides support, or it will go all the way to $37.
In case of the bigger fall my strategy is to double the position at that renewed bottom, as I think this company's valuation is totally ok, I still expect moderate gains from it in the next 6-12 month. (compared to tech sector for example, which has huge risks for this year, and it will be hard to step in at bottoms)
Cheers
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.