Wyckoff Accumulation Phases of Credit Suisse
Some remarks on the price evolution of CS
Credit Suisse stock was in a downtrend which ended with a selling climax (SCLX) on February 11 this year. After that CS showed signs of being accumulated. The Brexit vote initiated a huge shake out. During this shake out it broke below its trading range, after which it trended back up into the trading range. Here it tested the 12.56 support twice; once on the Deutsche Bank fine news and also today after CEO Tidjane Thiam said he expects a challenging third quarter. Currently it is in Phase D, or alternatively it might still be in phase B.
Notice the volume peaks on down swings. This is a sign of buying pressure caused by the Composite Operator (or Insiders as Anna Coulling calls them) which buy in the lower end of the trading range, as discussed in the book "A Complete Guide to Volume Price Analysis " by Anna Coulling.
I posted this idea before (linked below).
On that chart you see the On Balance Volume indicator. Notice the explosion of the on balance volume for CS, right after the Brexit. And you know what they say: "volume precedes price".
I also labeled the chart of CSGNZ. Notice the differences in volume, particularly during the selling climax:
Some facts that support the hypothesis suggested by the technical analysis:
STRONG HANDS HOLDING CS
A very large part of CS shares is held by a few very large long-term investors that don't sell on weakness but use it to add to their core position (smart money). In fact they've added just recently. These kinds of buyers and shareholders explain the pattern we see in the CS and CSGNZ charts.
In the last couple of weeks more than 20 percent of Credit Suisse shares is owned by three shareholders:
Harris Associates (with David Herro as fund manager) owns more than 10 percent of shares (August 22, 2016).
The Saudi Arabian Olayan Group, through its registered entity Crescent Holding GmbH, holds more than 5 percent of shares and about 5 percent in convertible bonds (September 12, 2016) and is/was represented by someone on the board.
The Capital Group holds more than 5 percent of shares (August 30, 2016).
https://www.credit-suisse.com/ch/en/about-us/governance/shareholders/significant-shareholders.html
http://www.thecountrycaller.com/80429-credit-suisse-group-ag-adr-cs-biggest-shareholder-increases-stake-you-should-too/
http://www.finews.com/news/english-news/24236-credit-suisse-capital-group-equity-stake
Besides these shareholders there is the state fund of Qatar that owns more than 5 percent of shares and about 13 percent in convertible bonds (June 17, 2016) and is represented by someone on the board.
Considering the long and intimate relationship of the Qatar state fund and Credit Suisse it is safe to assume they didn't sell in the past 3 months and this would imply no less than 25% of shares being owned by no more than 4 shareholders in the past month.
Another shareholder worth mentioning is the Norwegian Sovereign Fund (Norges Bank), which claimed beneficial ownership the day after the selling climax on February 11 (owning 5 percent of shares on February 12).
These are the shareholders that were required to file a Schedule 13D with the SEC, due to beneficial ownership. But I bet there are a lot of other institutions buying CS without reaching beneficial ownership.
Credit Suisse stock was in a downtrend which ended with a selling climax (SCLX) on February 11 this year. After that CS showed signs of being accumulated. The Brexit vote initiated a huge shake out. During this shake out it broke below its trading range, after which it trended back up into the trading range. Here it tested the 12.56 support twice; once on the Deutsche Bank fine news and also today after CEO Tidjane Thiam said he expects a challenging third quarter. Currently it is in Phase D, or alternatively it might still be in phase B.
Notice the volume peaks on down swings. This is a sign of buying pressure caused by the Composite Operator (or Insiders as Anna Coulling calls them) which buy in the lower end of the trading range, as discussed in the book "A Complete Guide to Volume Price Analysis " by Anna Coulling.
I posted this idea before (linked below).
On that chart you see the On Balance Volume indicator. Notice the explosion of the on balance volume for CS, right after the Brexit. And you know what they say: "volume precedes price".
I also labeled the chart of CSGNZ. Notice the differences in volume, particularly during the selling climax:
Some facts that support the hypothesis suggested by the technical analysis:
STRONG HANDS HOLDING CS
A very large part of CS shares is held by a few very large long-term investors that don't sell on weakness but use it to add to their core position (smart money). In fact they've added just recently. These kinds of buyers and shareholders explain the pattern we see in the CS and CSGNZ charts.
In the last couple of weeks more than 20 percent of Credit Suisse shares is owned by three shareholders:
Harris Associates (with David Herro as fund manager) owns more than 10 percent of shares (August 22, 2016).
The Saudi Arabian Olayan Group, through its registered entity Crescent Holding GmbH, holds more than 5 percent of shares and about 5 percent in convertible bonds (September 12, 2016) and is/was represented by someone on the board.
The Capital Group holds more than 5 percent of shares (August 30, 2016).
https://www.credit-suisse.com/ch/en/about-us/governance/shareholders/significant-shareholders.html
http://www.thecountrycaller.com/80429-credit-suisse-group-ag-adr-cs-biggest-shareholder-increases-stake-you-should-too/
http://www.finews.com/news/english-news/24236-credit-suisse-capital-group-equity-stake
Besides these shareholders there is the state fund of Qatar that owns more than 5 percent of shares and about 13 percent in convertible bonds (June 17, 2016) and is represented by someone on the board.
Considering the long and intimate relationship of the Qatar state fund and Credit Suisse it is safe to assume they didn't sell in the past 3 months and this would imply no less than 25% of shares being owned by no more than 4 shareholders in the past month.
Another shareholder worth mentioning is the Norwegian Sovereign Fund (Norges Bank), which claimed beneficial ownership the day after the selling climax on February 11 (owning 5 percent of shares on February 12).
These are the shareholders that were required to file a Schedule 13D with the SEC, due to beneficial ownership. But I bet there are a lot of other institutions buying CS without reaching beneficial ownership.
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