The Art of Short Selling a Parabola (Dow Jones)

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What is a parabola? A parabola is a parabola, an exponential chart.

Based on 100 years of data for Dow Jones, how many years are red versus green? The ratio is 1 to 10.

Which means, if someone wants to short this market, they have 10% of probabilities of success.

People who have been long for the past 100 years including during Great Depression have been rewarded tremendously, provided that they don't take leverage and borrow excessive money to invest.

So, why do people love to short? Maybe it is trendy? Or maybe they want to be like Jesse Livermore? Oh wait, Jesse Livermore committed suicide and lose tons of money. Maybe not something people want to be like.

But hey, its a bubble, it will implode anyways and we will see the greatest great depression ever.

Yeah, sounds likely, especially when everyone is expecting for the market to crash including your normal mom and pops, it will happen right? The same people who bought at every bubble top are now suddenly a financial guru and is predicting market will DEFINITELY crash, sounds right.

But does majority always right? Is the crowd always right?

If we look at Yearly chart of Dow Jones. We don't see anything that showing signs of weaknesses.

Higher lows, higher highs. Still trading at the upper bolinger band and still above the 20 SMA for the yearly chart.

Above all, we have a trendline that extends from 1929 to 2000 and we are just BELOW that trendline, what will happen if we break above that trendline?

Explosion.

Eventually people will realize that they have been stupid and idiot for not having some exposure to the stock market since 2009 when you have stocks like Amazon, Apple, Nvidia etc that would have made them financially free.

Nobody saw the Artificial Intelligence revolution, it just came by.

Now, we have multiple and simultaneous technological revolutions coming at the same time and nobody is seeing them because they are too obsessed wasting their time working full day and using their time for entertainment and not spending enough time to read and reflect.

The old legacy companies will be disrupted and will die, new companies and stocks will join the top league. Dow Jones and S&P 500 represents the top guys. If a company goes out of favour, it will be removed from the indices. As simple as that.

I don't see and heard many people calling for 50k, 100k, 200k Dow. So, the assumptions are, as long as everyone is still bearish and keep calling for crash and hold all their money in negative yielding government bonds, this market has long way to go.

But I don't really care about Dow Jones, I care more about small cap companies with super big exponential growth potential which I will keep it to myself.

Regardless, See ya at 40k Dow and then 100k.

Peace.

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