Short

Updated

Dow Jones Short-Term Update Thread (Pt. 1)

Here is my original prediction of this possibility for a crash/correction made a month ago if you care to look at it.

This thread is only for updates on the short-term scale. Because honestly, this is more interesting than Crypto right now. I will include support zones, indicator analysis and everything just to show that it all works the same in any cash driven equity market.

I must note that this is me covering the possibility of a very bearish downtrend and the movements within it. If I see upside, I will surely note it. But I'm 100% not playing around with equity right now lol. I was never in. This is just charting for the heck of it, along with practice.

Note

Bro, when I tell you guys that these EMAs are legit, I'm not lying. It's halted and found support right at the 21 Weekly EMA. The next target has been set at the 55, but I'm curious as to the velocity in which this will fall. It's possible that we hit that target this week, but it's more likely that it comes with time. We'll have to see.

We're about to reach RSI support, but the weekly Stoch RSI still has much room. This is surely going down further.

Note

I also forgot to mention. Media is trying to find the reasoning behind the sell-off, but its nothing we haven't already heard before. They have no idea what the hell is going on.

My best guess? Buyer exhaustion and over-valuation?

Why now? Maybe Investment bankers and Brokers are clued into something that we don't know? Or... OR they realizing what we ALREADY know lol.

Note

This fast paced sell off is a 3rd wave on the subminuette scale. There is NO telling where the 5th wave will go, it could honestly go anywhere. So until we know where that goes, we really can't tell how far wave 4 may retrace to lead to wave minuette wave 5. The green lines are the support zones, and the yellow line is where the 55 Week EMA is at. That is also a near 1-1 extension for wave 5 to 3. It's safe to say that this will continue to drop lower. After hours are typically pretty eventful. I'm sure it will open lower (tomorrow) than where we close at today.

Note

The people buying right now are either day traders taking advantage or investors falling for the bull trap. Buy on the dip right?? Lol, not yet!

NO doubt in my mind we get another drop. 1 HR RSI hit freaking 5. That's the most bearish drop I've personally ever witnessed in my life. On any scale. Just no telling where wave 5 goes. But here are some support zones! It is possible that the 5th wave is truncated as well.

Note

I'm getting an update on my phone every 10 minutes about the trading swings here. LOL jaws of "poorness" is forming hahaha. No, but really there is nothing funny about this, this is just fun to me.

Anyways, its making moves into the retrace box, and we could even possibly see it come all the way back up to the resistance line, but that is unlikely. We're working on the C wave right now and its pretty likely to fall again with these short-scale timelines working against it. Green boxes are our support zones where we may bounce from.

If you entered the market in the beginning of January, yesterday you would have made nothing. Today or Today, may or may not be worse.

Note

Guys, elliot wave works on even the minute scale! Here is a close up view of whats happening. We're gonna see a small drop here soon out of this ascending wedge. If this is a tradition FLAT ABC corrective pattern, then this C wave should have 5 waves within it. Causing a 3-3-5 wave count. We probably wont break that small white resistance. But there is a chance that we do.

There is also a chance that this is a 3-3-3-3-3 corrective pattern if wave C doesn't end in 5 waves, and that could take us higher.

Note

Sorry, small mistake.

Note

Currently on last fifth wave, it may touch this top-line resistance for the 6th time. This fall is going to be another nasty one, it has to break through this short-term support line.

Note

Another (not-so) beautiful drop on the DOW. Following our layout pretty nicely. We still have this 5th wave and I'm damn sure we fall from this triangle. This 5th wave can still go anywhere, a 1 to 1 extension takes us down to our second support where the weekly 55 EMA is at. Let's hope its not there.

Note

Looks like that last little 100 point slide may have been out subwave 5! Looks like wave 5 on the subminuette scale is now complete to finish minuette wave 1!

So here's a look at what is possible to happen over the next week. The market should continue to see volatility, but be a bit more bullish. Wave 3 could be horrid. Support zone 3 is if its just a 1 to 1 extension of wave 1. Usually wave 3 is the most impulsive and disastrous. I very much hope that it is not that.

Note

Fun Fact: Right now, a 1 point change in the DOW represents roughly $1.8 Billion.

Note

Update Update Update! Lesson Time!

Here is what you call a "Throw-Over 5th." This is a common practice when you find a channel line support. Typically the last wave (e or 5) in a corrective phase doesn't do what you expect it to. It very often falls short or over extends the target. When it falls through the support (in a downtrend) or extends past the resistance (on an uptrend), then you call it a "throw-over."

The market psychology behind this wave indicates market exhaustion. During this wave you usually see the last pushes by the market. In a bear market, this is typically when people sell off of fear, because it crosses past their expectations. Or in a bull market, people buy into excitement because just the same - it crosses past their expectations.

Elliot wave is creepy guys. I've noticed in the past that i would set up a buy order and change them based off of what I see in the order book, then what I do ends up following elliot wave theory. It's like a freaking subconscious thing we all have hard-wired into our brains. The law of the markets...

Note

cnbc.com/2018/02/08/white-house-instructs-government-agencies-to-prepare-for-shutdown.html

News story that could likely cause our wave 3 if funding lapses.

Note

Forgot to mention, I find it pretty funny that the funding actually passed. Earlier than I expected, this should lead our ABC corrective motives back up to the 24.5k region. Seems like the government is in a bit of a panic, and willing to save the market. But there are a lot of issues in which the market has positioned itself as to where a significant crash could really have severe effects on this economy for a longer period of time.

Note

Hmmmmm. Stopped at my resistance line...

Andddd if we just copy the EXACT wave formation from the first drop, and copy it to this previous high..... We notice that it would stop at a channel support line.... I wonderrrr iffff.... hmmmm....

...Nahhh

We'll see how this plays out! :D

Note

Not looking good for the stock market... Not even done with wave 1 yet. Which shows some concern about how wave 3 will end up. I think this support zone is the lowest we could go on this drop. Anything further would be surprising the least. We may stop at channel support, But I don't think it's likely.

1 drop with a rebound and the market is happy. Can they not panic with a second one that's even worse? Well, I'd hate to say it this early in the game. But I saw this coming a while back. I wouldn't dare put money in the stock market and people ridiculed me for it. We'll see how this plays out, because a reversal isn't not impossible, but I'm sticking to my guns (for now).

Note

You guys ready for the DOW to open up lower with this ugly bear flag?

Note

We've formed a symmetrical triangle. 9/10 they break towards the direction of the preceding trend. In this case, the preceding trend is up. So, logically, it should break up.

BUT, i'd take the chance this is the one that goes down. Daily indicators are in the neutral position. And what's really making me think we go down is the level of resistance showing with the 55 EMA. If these EMA's (8,13,21) cross over the 55... We're done.

Note

Let's look at the weekly indicators.. This kind of looks like a bear flag, amirite?
Hard to think we just reach higher highs with this level of volitily and fear in the market. Market sentiment is "oh shit" right now. Usually symmetrical triangles follow market sentiment.

I think we really need to hit the 55 weekly EMA. Once we do that, and get the death cross on the daily chart.. It will be a hard time for the market to move forward. It still can, though. BUT, if we get a weekly death cross of the 55 EMA. Then good lord, that's when things get BAD.

Note

Making progress as expected. Fell from the triangle, and we still have another major drop before we finish wave 3. It is still possible that we bounce up and get some volatile sideways action for the next few months before we head down further. But this is my main count.

Note

We haven't broken the bottom support. Typically with descending triangles like this, they break down. But not always. Let's keep an eye on this. Bias would say down, as usual ;D

Elijah_Trading

Also on:

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.

Elijah_Trading

Also on: