US 30 in ABC correction: A Bull Trap; expect Lower soon!
Updated
Wow what an amazing jump! Does it mean the bears are back in hibernation? Doubtful.
Boxing Day's record 1k rally was just an impressive a-leg of an a-b-c minor correction after a punishing 3rd Intermediate wave in the current bear wave. Trend is still Bear!
Note in chart the abc pattern extension to 0.50 Fibo coincides with the 0.618 Fib retracement of the intermediate wave, thus a strong double wave effect will likely terminate the countertrend positive corrective wave (4) near 23,300. (Marked by Pincher arrows)
Wave 4 may not rise above wave 1, which terminated at 23824, this yields a cap on 4th wave rally.
Wave 5 will be stunning and terrifying. Bulls that thought it was all over will panic and despair. Traders who short puts will be wiped out.
An estimate of termination for Primary Wave 5 from Fib extensions yields Dow 19072 at the 1.618 extension. An extension lower is certainly possible.
The Fib spiral for intermediate Wave (3) reveals expected floor for (5) at 20542, for a 1.272 extension, and also curtails the subsequent, expected 4th Primary Wave rally to near 22700, at Fib time projection near 19-21 Feb 2019.
Do not be long in this market! Do not start selling puts for income! I wouldn't sell either puts OR calls short in this market, odds are you will get scared into big losses on both sides. Be patient; be careful! Stay away and save trading capital if in doubt. Risk:Reward very poor right now, risk very high, reward likely low.
As always, this post for education and amusement only and does not constitute investment advice; trade at your own risk! GLTA!
Boxing Day's record 1k rally was just an impressive a-leg of an a-b-c minor correction after a punishing 3rd Intermediate wave in the current bear wave. Trend is still Bear!
Note in chart the abc pattern extension to 0.50 Fibo coincides with the 0.618 Fib retracement of the intermediate wave, thus a strong double wave effect will likely terminate the countertrend positive corrective wave (4) near 23,300. (Marked by Pincher arrows)
Wave 4 may not rise above wave 1, which terminated at 23824, this yields a cap on 4th wave rally.
Wave 5 will be stunning and terrifying. Bulls that thought it was all over will panic and despair. Traders who short puts will be wiped out.
An estimate of termination for Primary Wave 5 from Fib extensions yields Dow 19072 at the 1.618 extension. An extension lower is certainly possible.
The Fib spiral for intermediate Wave (3) reveals expected floor for (5) at 20542, for a 1.272 extension, and also curtails the subsequent, expected 4th Primary Wave rally to near 22700, at Fib time projection near 19-21 Feb 2019.
Do not be long in this market! Do not start selling puts for income! I wouldn't sell either puts OR calls short in this market, odds are you will get scared into big losses on both sides. Be patient; be careful! Stay away and save trading capital if in doubt. Risk:Reward very poor right now, risk very high, reward likely low.
As always, this post for education and amusement only and does not constitute investment advice; trade at your own risk! GLTA!
Trade active
Just about a perfect fill on this chart today, nearly completed corrective projection- perhaps a few hundred pips remain upside. Close longs now!Trade active
Futures point to open near 0.50 Fib retrace at 23308. Could get up to 0.62 Fibo at 23689, might not, big gamble now to bet long, but short covering + algos could sure push higher. Move above 0.786 Fib of 24231 would invalidate this model, as wave 4 may not trade above closing termination price of wave 1 at 24208. A wave was 1170 pips, C wave should rise about that much from B termination at 22360, to ~23530. GLTA!Note
NB: Overnite high price in futures: 23346 suggests pivot might occur at the 050 Fibo.Trade active
Stopped right at 0.50 Fibo and rejected. Expect one more retest for a right shoulder!Trade active
On a right shoulder in H&S on MOnday PM buying puts- Jan 245 SPY put. GLTA!Trade active
Added to pisiotn at 23308 strong pushback off the Fibo# will pivot shortly!
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