Bearish DIv on the DJI
The market is extremely overheated, overbought, and is reaching a peak.
US equities have been going up since March '20 and some traders are worried about a looming depression. The concern is valid. The government keeps printing money, spending money, raising the debt ceiling, COVID is STILL spreading, CDC changing guidance, tapering, interest rates, etc! YA-da-ya-da. IT feels like there are so many moving parts - how do you make sense of them?
You just look at the charts and cut out the noise!
After further review, the stock market is going to crash, it is just a matter of when and why. I believe the catalyst will be a news event that causes a massive sell-off, then, a dead cat bounce, followed by risk off event that sends US equities in a multiyear depression. Looking at the yearly chart of the
DJI from 1987-2021. There is massive bearish divergence there. There is even bearish divergence from '87-'21 on the RSI!
EVERYTHING is overbought. COVID accelerated the transition to digitization and increased people's dependence on the internet. People are saving way more now too which is why the velocity of money has decreased... people are buying assets, houses, gold, and bitcoin. People are waking up and realizing that the US government has been debasing our currency since 1970. And they will continue to do so! People want to own assets, people want to save, people want to be protected from inflation. Robinhood helped democratize trading and access to the stock market and retail has played an increasingly important role in the market.
I believe the market is set to crash next summer and that there will be a multiyear depression. Hyperinflation or stagflation seem to be the most likely scenarios as well. Runaway inflation will be the story. Biden's administration will be the scapegoat. Because let's be honest, every president is only concerned about one thing: getting RE-ELECTED. They don't care how much money they have to print, how much money they have to raise or how much debt they have to finance. Every politician, from Reagan, to Bush, to Obama to Biden, has continued to destroy the US currency. It will be no different with next president we "elect". In other words, Biden's administration is scapegoat for all of Washington and every state actor who has a role in fiscal and monetary policy.
The market is overvalued, propped up by fear and a QE, and is facing a whirlwind of negatives to start 2022. The companies that survive this multiyear depression, will come out twice as strong.
HODL. Buy Bitcoin.
Best of Luck,
US equities have been going up since March '20 and some traders are worried about a looming depression. The concern is valid. The government keeps printing money, spending money, raising the debt ceiling, COVID is STILL spreading, CDC changing guidance, tapering, interest rates, etc! YA-da-ya-da. IT feels like there are so many moving parts - how do you make sense of them?
You just look at the charts and cut out the noise!
After further review, the stock market is going to crash, it is just a matter of when and why. I believe the catalyst will be a news event that causes a massive sell-off, then, a dead cat bounce, followed by risk off event that sends US equities in a multiyear depression. Looking at the yearly chart of the
DJI from 1987-2021. There is massive bearish divergence there. There is even bearish divergence from '87-'21 on the RSI!EVERYTHING is overbought. COVID accelerated the transition to digitization and increased people's dependence on the internet. People are saving way more now too which is why the velocity of money has decreased... people are buying assets, houses, gold, and bitcoin. People are waking up and realizing that the US government has been debasing our currency since 1970. And they will continue to do so! People want to own assets, people want to save, people want to be protected from inflation. Robinhood helped democratize trading and access to the stock market and retail has played an increasingly important role in the market.
I believe the market is set to crash next summer and that there will be a multiyear depression. Hyperinflation or stagflation seem to be the most likely scenarios as well. Runaway inflation will be the story. Biden's administration will be the scapegoat. Because let's be honest, every president is only concerned about one thing: getting RE-ELECTED. They don't care how much money they have to print, how much money they have to raise or how much debt they have to finance. Every politician, from Reagan, to Bush, to Obama to Biden, has continued to destroy the US currency. It will be no different with next president we "elect". In other words, Biden's administration is scapegoat for all of Washington and every state actor who has a role in fiscal and monetary policy.
The market is overvalued, propped up by fear and a QE, and is facing a whirlwind of negatives to start 2022. The companies that survive this multiyear depression, will come out twice as strong.
HODL. Buy Bitcoin.
Best of Luck,
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