Long Term DJI Targets (3-4 years)
Dow Jones Index Sept 2020-2022
Low: 16,153 points
High: 35,006+ points
As of today September 23rd, 2020, DJI is ~26,900 points. If we assume that the most recent 29,199 point DJI peak on August 31st-Sept 3rd is the top of the current months-long cycle, then my forecasts are as follows:
Through end of October through November we may start to witness a bit more shaved off the DJI. In the past 4 weeks since the 31st, DJI has dropped about -8%. If we continue steadily on a downward trend in the next 4-6 weeks, we could potentially see it go as low as what I perceive to be an important resistance level around 23,000-23,500 points. If we don't immediately go straight through that level and it bounces back up a bit higher, I'd like to wait to see if it starts forming some Elliott ABCs.
My suspicion is that if we don't go to 23,500 range by November, it could still correct down to at least 24,000 range. Our bounce back up could take place in November-December 2020 back up to approximately where we are now, 26,900-27,200 points.
After that, we could continue back down on a trend if this doesn't significantly hold above ~26-27k after December
What could ensue from December 2020 to Feb/March 2021 could be continuance of steady drop resuming the current suspected trend. If we test below 21-24k, it could trigger another pending "market crash" and the DJI could very well be back on its way down to around 15k-16k points range, which could flash at any point if it does stay below 24k for too long.
A very few of the articles I read regarding the market back in late March 2020 and early April had speculated about potential market crash in August 2020. August has passed, but it has been 20 days since our last major recent high since march. I feel I've been skeptical of a bull market for good reason though. It would seem perfectly healthy for this market to correct and deflate per my trends, at least to me it feels like more correction should be expected on the current political path we are on.
If said 2nd crash comes to fruition, the period after from March/April until around (give or take) June 2022 could be a massive recovery, but it could take until November 2021 to start to recover back to where we are currently at 27k. After that, we could still continue on a trend towards roughly 35k points by June-August 2022.
Part of my current forecast has to do with the amount of disbelief for a bear market that was prominent in a lot of avid and enthusiastic market watchers even months before the March 2020 crash occurred. I think the recent upwards movements now has a majority of the market excited to buy, which in my opinion means we are due for more correction down.
Another part of this has to do with a briefing Trump gave about 6 weeks ago, August 10, 2020. Notably, it was the same day the secret service had to apprehend a shooter outside the white house just a couple minutes after Trump began speaking. His talks seemed to throw hints about how DJI and S&P500 are back to recovered levels, and proceeds to talk about how he plans to cut capital gains taxes. Which entirely leads me to believe that a major market sell-off could be pending with extra financial incentive to sell a recovered high without forfeiting as much tax percentage.
I suspect around 2022-2024 the market will explode to new all time highs across the board for a majority of assets.
Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, I am not responsible for any losses incurred while attempting to use my data, I hope this can prove to be some sort of learning tool for some and give insight as to how I personally come up with my own numbers. Take into full consideration this could be a completely bad forecast. Cheers
Low: 16,153 points
High: 35,006+ points
As of today September 23rd, 2020, DJI is ~26,900 points. If we assume that the most recent 29,199 point DJI peak on August 31st-Sept 3rd is the top of the current months-long cycle, then my forecasts are as follows:
Through end of October through November we may start to witness a bit more shaved off the DJI. In the past 4 weeks since the 31st, DJI has dropped about -8%. If we continue steadily on a downward trend in the next 4-6 weeks, we could potentially see it go as low as what I perceive to be an important resistance level around 23,000-23,500 points. If we don't immediately go straight through that level and it bounces back up a bit higher, I'd like to wait to see if it starts forming some Elliott ABCs.
My suspicion is that if we don't go to 23,500 range by November, it could still correct down to at least 24,000 range. Our bounce back up could take place in November-December 2020 back up to approximately where we are now, 26,900-27,200 points.
After that, we could continue back down on a trend if this doesn't significantly hold above ~26-27k after December
What could ensue from December 2020 to Feb/March 2021 could be continuance of steady drop resuming the current suspected trend. If we test below 21-24k, it could trigger another pending "market crash" and the DJI could very well be back on its way down to around 15k-16k points range, which could flash at any point if it does stay below 24k for too long.
A very few of the articles I read regarding the market back in late March 2020 and early April had speculated about potential market crash in August 2020. August has passed, but it has been 20 days since our last major recent high since march. I feel I've been skeptical of a bull market for good reason though. It would seem perfectly healthy for this market to correct and deflate per my trends, at least to me it feels like more correction should be expected on the current political path we are on.
If said 2nd crash comes to fruition, the period after from March/April until around (give or take) June 2022 could be a massive recovery, but it could take until November 2021 to start to recover back to where we are currently at 27k. After that, we could still continue on a trend towards roughly 35k points by June-August 2022.
Part of my current forecast has to do with the amount of disbelief for a bear market that was prominent in a lot of avid and enthusiastic market watchers even months before the March 2020 crash occurred. I think the recent upwards movements now has a majority of the market excited to buy, which in my opinion means we are due for more correction down.
Another part of this has to do with a briefing Trump gave about 6 weeks ago, August 10, 2020. Notably, it was the same day the secret service had to apprehend a shooter outside the white house just a couple minutes after Trump began speaking. His talks seemed to throw hints about how DJI and S&P500 are back to recovered levels, and proceeds to talk about how he plans to cut capital gains taxes. Which entirely leads me to believe that a major market sell-off could be pending with extra financial incentive to sell a recovered high without forfeiting as much tax percentage.
I suspect around 2022-2024 the market will explode to new all time highs across the board for a majority of assets.
Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, I am not responsible for any losses incurred while attempting to use my data, I hope this can prove to be some sort of learning tool for some and give insight as to how I personally come up with my own numbers. Take into full consideration this could be a completely bad forecast. Cheers
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