DUOL: In the mid-term resistance zone
Updated
While I like DUOL from fundamentals and momentum leadership perspective, my interpretation of the price structure calls to be very careful to any potential sell- or trend-changing signs.
227-264 area is the zone of important resistance for the first leg of an uptrend trend, starting from May'22 lows.
Until price is closing bellow 264 level, I cannot disregard the these perspective of mid-term pullback to 140-100 area, that may present exceptional opportunities to get onboard for the potential triple digits run in several years.
If price move beyond 264 resistance level, suggested price structure needs to be revised.
Signs of potential trend reversal would be:
1. Break bellow 8/21 ema on volume and distribution signs;
2. Break bellow 2021 top (205)*;
3. Break bellow 50d and 10w MAs on volume increase.
I remain very bullish and optimistic long-term for this name.
* that could trigger double-top short set-up with 205 as a covering guide
227-264 area is the zone of important resistance for the first leg of an uptrend trend, starting from May'22 lows.
Until price is closing bellow 264 level, I cannot disregard the these perspective of mid-term pullback to 140-100 area, that may present exceptional opportunities to get onboard for the potential triple digits run in several years.
If price move beyond 264 resistance level, suggested price structure needs to be revised.
Signs of potential trend reversal would be:
1. Break bellow 8/21 ema on volume and distribution signs;
2. Break bellow 2021 top (205)*;
3. Break bellow 50d and 10w MAs on volume increase.
I remain very bullish and optimistic long-term for this name.
* that could trigger double-top short set-up with 205 as a covering guide
Trade active
Short DUOL at break of 8 ema with a reversal bar. Stop: first at -3%; second at HOD
Trade active
Adding to shorts on 21ema break attempt. Volume is not decisive yet. 21ema could be strong support for further advance. So playing with tight risk of HOD (at close)
Note
Good follow-through bellow 21ema todayStops could be moved to break-even
Potential test of 50d MA could be used as the area to trim more profits.
Note
First target at 50d reached. Trimming some profits. Stops at breakeven on the rest. Low volume bounce to 8/21emas may present another short opportunity. Or 50d may act as the bottoming zone for perspective base building process.
My goal is to observe what is unfolding and act accordingly (if the odds are there).
Trade active
Was adding to shorts last 4 days. Stops at BE, above 21 ema (on close) Trade active
Partially financing risk here with -15% from initial entry 26.12 at 65d MA with good follow-through this morning. Moving stops to 21 ema.
Trade closed: target reached
Closing full position at 190.28. Price looks extended to the downside and prone to a bounce (at least). This move looks like the first wave - A - of a larger corrective structure - wave (2).
Note
The corrective structure for wave (2) looks to be complete. Next important mid-term resistance area: 248-345 (0.382-0.618% extension of wave (1)-(2)). In this resistance zone price may form a potential handle in long CaH patter before breaking out into long term uptrend towards next macro resistance zone: 589-820 and beyond (if following support structure holds)
Proposed structure is valid if price holds above august's lows (144)
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