$DVN, end of the monster rally?
Updated
Following stage anlysis by Stan Weinstein, 
DVN is on the verge of moving into a stage 4 decline. The SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (
XOP) is also showing weakness.
AlthoughXOP showed relative strenght last week, it resides underneath the 30 WMA and it's starting to curl downward.
IfXOP can't reclaim the 30 WMA on this pullback, this will show the weakness of these stocks (e.g. OXY, AR, USO,...) especially the ones who had a monsterrun (+100%) the last few years (DVN 4,70 --> 79,40).
A price entry will depend on the price action this week. If price can't reclaim the trend line (ca. 63) a short entry (or puts) can be entered there, a secondary entry would be a failed break of the 30 WSMA. This spot (30WMA) coincides with the declining 50 DEMA and DT trendline, this would be the ideal spot to go short.
This setup is invalidated if price breaks these MA's and trendlines on big volume.
Look at the weekly timeframe to get a clearer picture.
DVN is on the verge of moving into a stage 4 decline. The SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) is also showing weakness.Although
XOP showed relative strenght last week, it resides underneath the 30 WMA and it's starting to curl downward.If
XOP can't reclaim the 30 WMA on this pullback, this will show the weakness of these stocks (e.g. OXY, AR, USO,...) especially the ones who had a monsterrun (+100%) the last few years (DVN 4,70 --> 79,40).A price entry will depend on the price action this week. If price can't reclaim the trend line (ca. 63) a short entry (or puts) can be entered there, a secondary entry would be a failed break of the 30 WSMA. This spot (30WMA) coincides with the declining 50 DEMA and DT trendline, this would be the ideal spot to go short.
This setup is invalidated if price breaks these MA's and trendlines on big volume.
Look at the weekly timeframe to get a clearer picture.
Trade active
Opened a few puts (ca. 3 months out) when the price reached my first target 63,XX. (also opened puts on 
CCJ, XOP and 
AR)Price dropped immediately the next day, and is now slowely recovering and trying to go to the 63 mark again.
I didn't close my puts (except for AR, 10%drop), because I expect there will be a bigger downward move (Stage 4, Weinstein) in the Oil and gas Expl and prod. sector (
XOP).Stop-loss for this trade is around 64-64,5 (10 en 30wma + avwap) in this area.
First price target: ca. 57 (AVWAP from big volume week 20 sep '21, also contained last drop)
Note
Also: bearish flag forming on the dailyTrade closed: target reached
Yesterday my price target (AVWAP) was hit after a big red day (same with XOP) and i closed the trade.I am now looking for price to retrace a bit (hopefully a clean bear flag) to re-enter the short trade.
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