DOLLAR RETRACE TO 103+ ON FOMC & NFP VOLATILITY ?
Updated
COT:
FOMC & NFP:
OUTLOOK:
- Dollar has weakened significantly since mid NOV-22
- Driven by institutional selling of long contracts since begin Q4-22
- Assisted by accumulation of short contracts sinds JAN-23
- Outlook for Q1-23 remains sideways to down
- Next downside level is 99.60
FOMC & NFP:
- Before another drop below 100 big figure a retrace is likely
- 103+ will likely be mitigated in FEB
- 103 = mitigation level = GAP resistance = sell VWAP
- Begin FEB is pivotal week(s) with FOMC & NFP
- FOMC and/or NFP volatility will likely facilitate the retrace
OUTLOOK:
- Will be monitoring price behaviour between 103.00 - 103.25
- Looking for change of behaviour on the lower timeframe (wicks into mitigation-level)
- Anticipating a swing lower from 103+ to 100- after mitigation
- This will offer buy setups in the MAJORS, with a preference for commodity CCY's
Note
- FOMC used to run stops below the market and lure breakout traders into shorts.- FED whisperers and talking heads helped talk Dollar lower.
- NFP used to take the market by surprise and trap more traders short.
- Looking for Dollar to mitigate 103+ level.
- After that a break of structure to the downside is the signal to watch for possible continuation of the downtrend.
Sultan of Swing
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