Ultimate Technical Analysis of Bitcoin-Correlation-DXY/Dollar
Updated
Hello everyone, hope you all are doing good.
As I said I will be posting an idea how Bitcoin is corelated to DXY/Dollar, so in this am going to explain the S&P500+Bitcoin-->Correlation-->DXY/Dollar.
Guys this is very important to understand so please check the chart carefully an if you have any questions, please do comment.
DXY/Dollar:
DXY/Dollar is the ultimate chart to understand the overall markets and analyze the Economy if it is healthy or unhealthy state.
DXY/Dollar (Uptrend) in Macro/Long time frames--> (US economy is outperforming other big economies + Federal Reserve raising interest rates)
Analyse DXY in Past (Macro uptrend/Bull(A)):
-Overall DXY was moving in a massive Descending Triangle Pattern Which Breakout in Jan-2015.
-DXY is in Parallel channel from the year 1988 to 2002.
-I marked the Upper zones (roughly from 120 to 160) and Lower zones (roughly from 70 to 80).
-In the past years 2000 to 2002 DXY was topped out reaching the peak at 120 and failed to breakout from the parallel channel forming a Bearish Divergence
and dropped massively to 70.
(While DXY is forming Bearish Divergence in RSI, S&P500 is topped out and slowly down Trending and S&P500 formed its 1st Lower Low)
-And the momentum of DXY is downwards and keep falling and bottomed out at 70.
(S&P500 slowed down its downtrend momentum forming a Bullish Divergence in RSI -> moved in Uptrend forming Double Top.
-DXY (77 to 70 DXY made Bullish Divergence in RSI) is Bottomed and moved with high volatility in upside direction.
(S&P500 fell massively forming its 2nd Lower Low).
Analyse DXY (Macro uptrend/Bull(A)):
The parallel channel from the year 1988 to 2002 --> is something similar to the current Parallel channel from 2007 to current (2022).
Currently in 2022 DXY in smaller Time Frames formed only 1-layer of Bearish Divergence in RSI compared to past and it is complete.
(But the overall Bearish Divergences is incomplete in longer Time Frames or incomplete in Multiple Layers of Divergence).
Conclusion1:
I see many people saying DXY is inversely corelated to stocks or Bitcoin, but after deeply analyzing the charts,
in macro–Time Frames DXY is directly corelated to other markets (Bitcoin/S&p500), but in micro time frames DXY is inversely corelated (mainly when DXY is in high volatility in small Time Frames).
What does this mean for Bitcoin?
when high volatile move of DXY (upside/downside mainly after Divergences formed and in smaller Time Frames) -> Bitcoin is very high volatile(inversely).
when DXY is in consolidation or moving sideways -> Bitcoin is in slow form of Uptrend.
I found this interesting as:
A. Real world Currencies (Dollar <-----> other currencies).
B. Digital/Crypto Currencies (Bitcoin <----> other Alt coins/other crypto currencies)
The working system of A is almost similar to B.A-system works based on economy, but I didn't get on what basis B works? may be how much money you put in.
Conclusion2:
Bitcoin is a new asset which was not there before 2000's, so we have to see what Bitcoin does as a new class asset.
So, in the past when DXY has Bottomed at 70 -> S&p500 was in sideways for almost 8years with Double Top formation + Bottomed at 2nd Lower low.
1.Is DYX is in Topping process or already Topped or will it Breaksout from the Parallel channel?
As per RSI there is no Divergences formed until now (Jan2023), so Topped or Topping process is not confirmed, but there are chances DXY will create higher highs.
May Breakout also, for this to Analyse DXY need another 6 to 12months time to confirm for Breakout or Breakdown.
2.What will happen if DXY gets topped out during the year 2023 roughly at 120 or something?
If this plays out, then history repeats, not exactly but something similar can happen like the past.
for example, like S&P500 making Double Top formation, create Lower Lows and Bottoming at 2nd lower low.
Bitcoin most probably can also create Double Top Or lower than 69K and 1st lower Low was in 2022-15500usd and 2nd lower Low can be formed in 2023.
3.What will happen if DXY will Breakout massively from the parallel channel to reach 150 or 160?
If DXY Breakouts it forms a new trend, then in Macro Time Frames S&P500 and Bitcoin will be in Uptrend.
Conclusion2:
Actually, compared to past history, after DXY topped out forming Bearish Divergences after than S&P500 formed Bullish Divergences and put its 1st Lower Low.
But currently (Jan2023) DXY did not topped out and did not form Bearish Divergences yet, but S&P500 formed Bullish Divergences (Is this 1st lower low for S&P500?). (Past and current XXX fractal).
Final Thoughts
Will DXY Breaksout to 150 or 160 mark or will it Breakdown to 70 or 80?
For this to confirm DXY needs at least another 6 months duration from now, may be in Q3/Q4 we can get more data to confirm.
Thanks a lot, please like, share and comment if you have any questions or thoughts, please follow me for more updates.
As I said I will be posting an idea how Bitcoin is corelated to DXY/Dollar, so in this am going to explain the S&P500+Bitcoin-->Correlation-->DXY/Dollar.
Guys this is very important to understand so please check the chart carefully an if you have any questions, please do comment.
DXY/Dollar:
DXY/Dollar is the ultimate chart to understand the overall markets and analyze the Economy if it is healthy or unhealthy state.
DXY/Dollar (Uptrend) in Macro/Long time frames--> (US economy is outperforming other big economies + Federal Reserve raising interest rates)
Analyse DXY in Past (Macro uptrend/Bull(A)):
-Overall DXY was moving in a massive Descending Triangle Pattern Which Breakout in Jan-2015.
-DXY is in Parallel channel from the year 1988 to 2002.
-I marked the Upper zones (roughly from 120 to 160) and Lower zones (roughly from 70 to 80).
-In the past years 2000 to 2002 DXY was topped out reaching the peak at 120 and failed to breakout from the parallel channel forming a Bearish Divergence
and dropped massively to 70.
(While DXY is forming Bearish Divergence in RSI, S&P500 is topped out and slowly down Trending and S&P500 formed its 1st Lower Low)
-And the momentum of DXY is downwards and keep falling and bottomed out at 70.
(S&P500 slowed down its downtrend momentum forming a Bullish Divergence in RSI -> moved in Uptrend forming Double Top.
-DXY (77 to 70 DXY made Bullish Divergence in RSI) is Bottomed and moved with high volatility in upside direction.
(S&P500 fell massively forming its 2nd Lower Low).
Analyse DXY (Macro uptrend/Bull(A)):
The parallel channel from the year 1988 to 2002 --> is something similar to the current Parallel channel from 2007 to current (2022).
Currently in 2022 DXY in smaller Time Frames formed only 1-layer of Bearish Divergence in RSI compared to past and it is complete.
(But the overall Bearish Divergences is incomplete in longer Time Frames or incomplete in Multiple Layers of Divergence).
Conclusion1:
I see many people saying DXY is inversely corelated to stocks or Bitcoin, but after deeply analyzing the charts,
in macro–Time Frames DXY is directly corelated to other markets (Bitcoin/S&p500), but in micro time frames DXY is inversely corelated (mainly when DXY is in high volatility in small Time Frames).
What does this mean for Bitcoin?
when high volatile move of DXY (upside/downside mainly after Divergences formed and in smaller Time Frames) -> Bitcoin is very high volatile(inversely).
when DXY is in consolidation or moving sideways -> Bitcoin is in slow form of Uptrend.
I found this interesting as:
A. Real world Currencies (Dollar <-----> other currencies).
B. Digital/Crypto Currencies (Bitcoin <----> other Alt coins/other crypto currencies)
The working system of A is almost similar to B.A-system works based on economy, but I didn't get on what basis B works? may be how much money you put in.
Conclusion2:
Bitcoin is a new asset which was not there before 2000's, so we have to see what Bitcoin does as a new class asset.
So, in the past when DXY has Bottomed at 70 -> S&p500 was in sideways for almost 8years with Double Top formation + Bottomed at 2nd Lower low.
1.Is DYX is in Topping process or already Topped or will it Breaksout from the Parallel channel?
As per RSI there is no Divergences formed until now (Jan2023), so Topped or Topping process is not confirmed, but there are chances DXY will create higher highs.
May Breakout also, for this to Analyse DXY need another 6 to 12months time to confirm for Breakout or Breakdown.
2.What will happen if DXY gets topped out during the year 2023 roughly at 120 or something?
If this plays out, then history repeats, not exactly but something similar can happen like the past.
for example, like S&P500 making Double Top formation, create Lower Lows and Bottoming at 2nd lower low.
Bitcoin most probably can also create Double Top Or lower than 69K and 1st lower Low was in 2022-15500usd and 2nd lower Low can be formed in 2023.
3.What will happen if DXY will Breakout massively from the parallel channel to reach 150 or 160?
If DXY Breakouts it forms a new trend, then in Macro Time Frames S&P500 and Bitcoin will be in Uptrend.
Conclusion2:
Actually, compared to past history, after DXY topped out forming Bearish Divergences after than S&P500 formed Bullish Divergences and put its 1st Lower Low.
But currently (Jan2023) DXY did not topped out and did not form Bearish Divergences yet, but S&P500 formed Bullish Divergences (Is this 1st lower low for S&P500?). (Past and current XXX fractal).
Final Thoughts
Will DXY Breaksout to 150 or 160 mark or will it Breakdown to 70 or 80?
For this to confirm DXY needs at least another 6 months duration from now, may be in Q3/Q4 we can get more data to confirm.
Thanks a lot, please like, share and comment if you have any questions or thoughts, please follow me for more updates.
Note
Bitcoin Yearly Candles:
Bitcoin Based on OnBalanceVolume:
Bitcoin Based on Patterns:
Bitcoin Based on Elliott Wave Theory:
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