DXY: Dollar Index Game changer for Pairs
DXY: Dollar Index Game Changer
Really thought DXY would hold up off the lower parallel one more time by drifting sideways to meet it and then bouncing.
But it hasn't and today's price action is the final straw that's broken the Greenback's back.
This 2 month long continuation pattern is at an end and the dollar's downtrend resumes from this point. Look to sell dollar
against pairs on next rally now. DXY looks likely to fall back down to 94, make a failed rally from here (giving a second chance
to set-up dollar shorts v Eur) and then to fall away to 92.70, bounce again, likely fail again, and then fall away to 91.
Use the first rally on DXY towards 94.25-94.30 as a last chance to short go short of USD across all pairs, if we are lucky
enough to see it.
Today's price action is a game changer. We can no longer look to buy USD on declines - instead, the chart is telling us to sell
USD rallies until further notice. As usual about 3 people will bother to read this. I know that those 3 are the most switched
on, most sensible traders of all !
And another strange thing you may have noticed too: because this wonderful website relies on
'likes' to gain 'reputation', what it actually relies on is confirmation bias. If you agree with the comment, maybe you
'like' it. As 80 to 90% of all traders lose money all this confirmation bias actually does is lead the blind towards the
equally blind. Often the comment with the most likes is the one that's going to be most wrong, not right. But that's how it
works, counter intuitively, just like markets themselves sometimes. So I asked the guys who run the site if perhaps
they could analyse the forecasts and set-ups of just the so-called top 10 writers and maybe run a new idea: Top 10 most
accurate writers by results (a call is either right or wrong, must hit given target to be right, not very complicated or
even very time consuming if just 10 writers are being monitored) - but no. They thought about it and dropped it. So,
to moral of this tale: Just because a comment gets a load of likes it doesn't in reality mean a thing. It's more likely the
comment that gets no likes is going to be more accurate. Just like with markets, sometimes the exact opposite applies to
conventional 'wisdom'. The wisdom of the crowd. Mmmm. You mean the same crowd who adored Hitler or Mao
...or even Hillary Clinton? You'll get more sense from talking to your dog most of the time. Just sayin'
Really thought DXY would hold up off the lower parallel one more time by drifting sideways to meet it and then bouncing.
But it hasn't and today's price action is the final straw that's broken the Greenback's back.
This 2 month long continuation pattern is at an end and the dollar's downtrend resumes from this point. Look to sell dollar
against pairs on next rally now. DXY looks likely to fall back down to 94, make a failed rally from here (giving a second chance
to set-up dollar shorts v Eur) and then to fall away to 92.70, bounce again, likely fail again, and then fall away to 91.
Use the first rally on DXY towards 94.25-94.30 as a last chance to short go short of USD across all pairs, if we are lucky
enough to see it.
Today's price action is a game changer. We can no longer look to buy USD on declines - instead, the chart is telling us to sell
USD rallies until further notice. As usual about 3 people will bother to read this. I know that those 3 are the most switched
on, most sensible traders of all !
And another strange thing you may have noticed too: because this wonderful website relies on
'likes' to gain 'reputation', what it actually relies on is confirmation bias. If you agree with the comment, maybe you
'like' it. As 80 to 90% of all traders lose money all this confirmation bias actually does is lead the blind towards the
equally blind. Often the comment with the most likes is the one that's going to be most wrong, not right. But that's how it
works, counter intuitively, just like markets themselves sometimes. So I asked the guys who run the site if perhaps
they could analyse the forecasts and set-ups of just the so-called top 10 writers and maybe run a new idea: Top 10 most
accurate writers by results (a call is either right or wrong, must hit given target to be right, not very complicated or
even very time consuming if just 10 writers are being monitored) - but no. They thought about it and dropped it. So,
to moral of this tale: Just because a comment gets a load of likes it doesn't in reality mean a thing. It's more likely the
comment that gets no likes is going to be more accurate. Just like with markets, sometimes the exact opposite applies to
conventional 'wisdom'. The wisdom of the crowd. Mmmm. You mean the same crowd who adored Hitler or Mao
...or even Hillary Clinton? You'll get more sense from talking to your dog most of the time. Just sayin'
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