Long

USD will out performe FX Major G7 in 2023

By OmarNAMOUCHI

Updated

2023 will be bullish for the USD.
I'll be updating this thread.

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Falling wedge on DXY.

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Hello Traders.

During Yesterday Fed FOMC Interest Rate Projections:

The FOMC surprised with higher rates.

Fed hiked interest rate to 4.5% from 4.0% in Sep.
Fed's median view of terminal rate for 2023 is 5.1% vs 4.6% is Sep.
Fed sees PCE inflation in 2023 3.1% vs 2.8% in Sep.
Fed sees core PCE inflation in 2023 3.5% vs 3.1% in Sep.
Fed sees US GDP growing in 2023 0.5% vs 1.2% in Sep.
Fed sees year-end US jobless rate in 2023 4.6% vs 4.4% is Sep.

Powell was hawkish during the Press Conference:
Said:
*Inflationary risks are skewed to the upside.
*I can't promise that we won't raise our peak rate estimate at a future meeting.
*There are no rate cuts in SEP in 2023.
*Failure to raise rates sufficiently would cause the most pain.

With all the above was said, a strong USD will manifest everytime the US. Maco-economic Data will surprise to upside the market expectations.

Stay tunded , i'll update !

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Falling wedge on U.S. Dollar Index 'DXY'.
Most likely next week there will be strong USD.

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⚠ The USD is goining into 2023 with this setup:

✔ supported by 50% of febonacci retracement.
✔ supported by the 50MA on weekly time frame.
✔ building "Falling Wedge" reversal formation.
✔ J. Powell Sain "No to rate Cutt in 2023".

"Good luck to all Dollar Bears."

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U.S. Dollar Index is firing all cylinders.

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The DXY price action are breaking out from the falling wedge formation.

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DXY is fighting to stay above 103.96

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On low time frame, there is "Double Bottom" formation "ADAM and EVE".

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Watch for the USD to push higher during the coming weeks.

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Massive breakout from DXY falling wadge, that will take the EURUSD FX rate to down side.
Although the yield spread between the German 02YR Gov. BOUND vs U.S. 02YR Gov. is pointing to upside, still the EURUSD is expected reverse to downside. Macro Chart

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🇺🇸 U.S. 10 YR GOV. Bond Yield is up 13.5% since mid December.

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No direction on U.S. Dollar Index 'DXY' in the absence of meaningful economic data.

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🚨 BREAKING NEWS :

The US will require travellers from China to submit a negative Covid-19 test beginning on January 5th 2023

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In absence of meaningfull data, the USD is heading to down side.

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⚠️ Dollar erases and reverses losses on positional, fundamental and technical grounds with EUR deflated by sub-consensus German state CPIs.

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*The direction of DXY will be set accourding to incoming Macro Data.

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There is a bullish divergence on DXY, but the direction will be set by the incoming Macro Data.

*Watch Initial Jobless Claims today. USD | Chart

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US Initial Jobless Claims Actual 204k (Forecast 225k, Previous 225k).

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Euro-Area Surprised Lower.

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U.S. Dollar Index continue to push higher on Euro-Area Headline Inflation surprise the market to downside.

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close the 1st trading week of 2023 with "Inverted Hammer Candlestick" after Weekly Average Earnings surprised lower !

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MUFG Bank: "MUFG: "The main trigger for the renewed US dollar sell-off was the release of the much weaker than expected ISM services survey on Friday that signalled a heightened risk of recession in the US. The survey revealed that business confidence in the services sector dropped sharply by 6.9 points to 49.6 in December."

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Today, the USD is being beaten by Dovish comment from the Fed's Bostic:

Fed's Bostic: If the upcoming CPI is consistent with the trends seen in the jobs report, the Fed will have to take 25 more seriously.

Also raising expectation that U.S. Dec CPI and Core CPI will surprise lower during Thursday 12th 2023.

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(Breaking News) - Directors at 9 regional Feds sought a 50 bp discount hike to 4.5% - "Fed Discount Rate Meeting Minutes".

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is bouncing from 0.618 fibonacci levels. #FX #Trading

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⚠️The Fed Fund Rate Vs : "Market participants are anticipating the Fed to cut interest rate and started sell the (Orange Line). #FX #Trading

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Watch for a bounce on DXY.

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Triangle formation on

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U.S. Economic Data Surprised to upside

GDP QoQ Q4 = 2.9%
Initial Jobless Claims = 186k

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To $ bears, "big short squeeze is coming your way !"

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USD chart update.

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U.S. Dollar Short Squeeze

Trade closed manually

I reste my case for strong USD.

OmarNAMOUCHI

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