The dollar reached the ideal points for sales
No matter who is talking about, but we are again about selling dollars. Despite the positive news from the macroeconomic statistics and the aggressive actions of the Fed, correction for the dollar is inevitable. It has matured a long time ago, but the fundamental pressure continued to push the dollar up, despite all the technical maturity of prices for reverse.
The Dollar Index reached the upper boundary of the medium-term range of 88-95. This is a sufficient signal for opening short positions. The logic is approximately the following: the most impatient buyers of the dollar in the absence of a fundamental support (and this week there is not a single event that could be an impulse for Dollar Index to break through 95) will begin to fix profits, which will provoke the first panic wave among the most impatient dollar bulls, which will be multiplied by mass oscillator signals, which will attract the first sellers. When the first fast averages begin to reverse, and they will be crossed the average with zero period (price), the second panic wave will start, when the bulls will receive countertrend signals. Mass exodus from long positions will inevitably lead to a decrease in the dollar.
In favor of this scenario evidence very tough divergences on the daily chart of the Dollar Index. Over the past month, its price has grown significantly, but the classical indicators (RSI, MACD) have formed a downward vector.
As for the fundamental factor that can act as a trigger, it is already in game - the transition of the US trade war against China and the whole world into an active phase.
That is, by and large the conditions for the correction has formed. It remains to wait for it to start.
In total, our recommendation for the current week: while the Dollar Index is below 95, sell the dollar. Target are rather optimistic up to 300-400 points on major dollar pairs.
The Dollar Index reached the upper boundary of the medium-term range of 88-95. This is a sufficient signal for opening short positions. The logic is approximately the following: the most impatient buyers of the dollar in the absence of a fundamental support (and this week there is not a single event that could be an impulse for Dollar Index to break through 95) will begin to fix profits, which will provoke the first panic wave among the most impatient dollar bulls, which will be multiplied by mass oscillator signals, which will attract the first sellers. When the first fast averages begin to reverse, and they will be crossed the average with zero period (price), the second panic wave will start, when the bulls will receive countertrend signals. Mass exodus from long positions will inevitably lead to a decrease in the dollar.
In favor of this scenario evidence very tough divergences on the daily chart of the Dollar Index. Over the past month, its price has grown significantly, but the classical indicators (RSI, MACD) have formed a downward vector.
As for the fundamental factor that can act as a trigger, it is already in game - the transition of the US trade war against China and the whole world into an active phase.
That is, by and large the conditions for the correction has formed. It remains to wait for it to start.
In total, our recommendation for the current week: while the Dollar Index is below 95, sell the dollar. Target are rather optimistic up to 300-400 points on major dollar pairs.
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