The myth of hyperinflation series- #2. Fed's tools
Evolution of Fed's QE-
Treasury/municipal bonds-> corporate bond ETF-> individual corporate bond-> Yield curve control (in potential development)-> Maybe... Individual stocks in the future...
As Fed adds more debts to its balance sheet, it hampers its ability to effectively intervene the market in the future. It will need progressively more and more stimulus packages to get us out of the subsequent financial crisis.
Forward guidance-
Odyssean forward guidance: Fed publicly commits the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) to a future action.
Delphic forward guidance: Fed merely forecasts macroeconomic performance and likely monetary policy actions.
Try to imagine the following highly improbable scenario- If Fed announces tomorrow that it will raise interest rate to 10 percent and slashes all the govt bonds on its balance sheet, how will the market react? Even something much less extreme of an announcement will and can drive the public sentiment and change the public perception of the market instantly even before the action is actually carried out. Now, that is the power of forward guidance.
Yield curve control (YCC)-
Basically, Fed has strong control over the short-term interest rate, but much less so on the long-term interest rate. In order to influence the long-term yield, Fed would shift purchase toward longer maturities and target some longer-term rate and pledge to buy enough long-term bonds to keep the rate from rising above its target. Fed employs the strategy of selling short-term treasuries and uses the funds to buy longer-term bonds in order to stimulate and spur borrowing, investment and economy if brings short-term rates to zero isn't enough.
Next, we will look at how effective these tools really are by examining few of Fed's past market interventions.
Treasury/municipal bonds-> corporate bond ETF-> individual corporate bond-> Yield curve control (in potential development)-> Maybe... Individual stocks in the future...
As Fed adds more debts to its balance sheet, it hampers its ability to effectively intervene the market in the future. It will need progressively more and more stimulus packages to get us out of the subsequent financial crisis.
Forward guidance-
Odyssean forward guidance: Fed publicly commits the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) to a future action.
Delphic forward guidance: Fed merely forecasts macroeconomic performance and likely monetary policy actions.
Try to imagine the following highly improbable scenario- If Fed announces tomorrow that it will raise interest rate to 10 percent and slashes all the govt bonds on its balance sheet, how will the market react? Even something much less extreme of an announcement will and can drive the public sentiment and change the public perception of the market instantly even before the action is actually carried out. Now, that is the power of forward guidance.
Yield curve control (YCC)-
Basically, Fed has strong control over the short-term interest rate, but much less so on the long-term interest rate. In order to influence the long-term yield, Fed would shift purchase toward longer maturities and target some longer-term rate and pledge to buy enough long-term bonds to keep the rate from rising above its target. Fed employs the strategy of selling short-term treasuries and uses the funds to buy longer-term bonds in order to stimulate and spur borrowing, investment and economy if brings short-term rates to zero isn't enough.
Next, we will look at how effective these tools really are by examining few of Fed's past market interventions.
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