Use the 1-month Donchian channel to determine the entry. Not just that, of course, but as the first signal. There was a breakout to the upside with an increase in daily volume, which shows interest in a consistent upward movement.
Volume is King here. We have seen the market consistently accumulate since November 2024. Notice that during the price drop between 01/16/2025 and 02/10/2025, the volume was very low compared to the previous bullish period. Right after this drop, the price starts to rise again, and so does the volume. The market consolidated the price with significant volume for accumulation, and now it begins to show signs of an upcoming bull period.
Insiders? The company’s fundamentals don't seem strong enough to justify this excessive volume. The sharks are more aware of the good analysis than the small fish. Will the result in 12 days surprise us? Or is there news about to be released?
My focus is on chart analysis, and it seems like a good time to follow the big players.
Entry at 2.36. Stop at 2.00. 6% of the capital, considering the 1% risk per trade.
Volume is King here. We have seen the market consistently accumulate since November 2024. Notice that during the price drop between 01/16/2025 and 02/10/2025, the volume was very low compared to the previous bullish period. Right after this drop, the price starts to rise again, and so does the volume. The market consolidated the price with significant volume for accumulation, and now it begins to show signs of an upcoming bull period.
Insiders? The company’s fundamentals don't seem strong enough to justify this excessive volume. The sharks are more aware of the good analysis than the small fish. Will the result in 12 days surprise us? Or is there news about to be released?
My focus is on chart analysis, and it seems like a good time to follow the big players.
Entry at 2.36. Stop at 2.00. 6% of the capital, considering the 1% risk per trade.
Trade active
March 10, 2025 – Earnings Report Eve
Today is the last day before the earnings report release. Recent news has caused significant volatility, and expectations for the results will likely keep the market unstable.
My entry at $2.36 on February 27, 2025, was well-timed, and I have already adjusted my stop to secure a profit.
The biggest challenge in my trades remains knowing the ideal exit point.
I appreciate Kristian Qullamaggie’s approach of tracking the two-week and one-month exponential moving averages. However, in highly volatile conditions, he would sometimes exit earlier. In some videos, he acknowledges making mistakes by exiting too soon without necessity.
That said, there is no wrong exit when you secure a profit—and that is the principle I follow.
Trade closed: stop reached
We are approaching the final stage of the U.S. stock market cycle. Today, the S&P 500 reached the one-year simple moving average, as I had anticipated in this analysis:Given this context, I am increasingly unwilling to take on unnecessary risk, especially when the return is already strong enough to justify closing a position.
This was the case with ECX, which hit my stop today at 2.68, securing a 13.5% return. While this is a solid gain, I had the chance to exit above 20% last week, making it a less-than-ideal outcome.
With earnings season approaching, caution is even more critical. For this reason, I exited upon the breakdown of the Daily Heiken Ashi. Under less volatile conditions, I would have held the trade as long as the price remained above the one-month exponential moving average.
Considering the broader challenges of this "end-of-cycle" market, I can't complain.
Note
So sad. But still profit =D
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.