This Week's Gravity Points & Expected Move ($35) & Trend SD
Updated
No call this week. The Breadth readings on the indicators I follow are all still rising. The Sentiment indicators I follow are all beneath an extreme reading. The Technical indicators I follow are all showing resilience despite their overbought levels which only confirms the trend. The Economic indicators I follow are quite mixed, some are turning from bearish to bullish (ex: Baltic Dry Index) and some are turning from bullish to bearish (ex: Retail Sales/Unemployment).
I'm adding a new condition to help assess calls on a week-by-week basis and that's the Trend. I have the trend channels here which show +/- 1, 2, and 3 Standard Deviation difference from the equilibrium. I'm just going to test this out for the next several weeks to see if it helps me, and hopefully if it helps anybody else. Anyone that's been away from Stats 101 for a while, remember that 68% of the time price should remain within 1 SD. 95% of the time price should remain inside 2 SD. Migrating more than 50% of the way or breaking the 3rd SD will signal/confirm a trend change as it only occurs 0.03% of the time.
Last week we had a significant breach to the upside of the Expected Move. This is a new shift from the previous several weeks where price had stayed inside of the Expected Moves. To me, this says that the options marketplace 1. Got it wrong, and 2. That this next week is less reliable. There's several targets that I find noteworthy to the upside - The Gravity Point at $2,811 coincides with this week's Expected Move. This also may run into the +1 SD.
Please Comment on posts if you have something to say. I'm very open to different perspectives or general comments and it actually helps me quite a bit in determining the value I'm bringing to the community. Liking the post also gives me feedback if you don't have anything to say. Right now I'm averaging about 2 Comments a week and about 5 Likes. I want watching my technical analysis to be like watching Lionel Messi play soccer. I seldom expect any sort of attention and that's not my goal here either, rather I'd like to add another individual or two to my team.
This move is reminiscent of early January 2018. A relentless move to the upside. However, in this move in 2019 has been even more of a relentless move. We're looking at a marketplace that has rallied from $2,350 to $2,750 in about a month and a half. About +15%. People get into the party late. This party has already happened.
If you're already invested / still invested - There's no reason to get out. Be on guard.
If you're looking to get in this long - You missed the party. You're going to get burned
If you're looking to get in this short - You're fighting the weight of the evidence. You're going to get burned
Goodluck next week Gentlemen
- RH
Last Week's Post
I'm adding a new condition to help assess calls on a week-by-week basis and that's the Trend. I have the trend channels here which show +/- 1, 2, and 3 Standard Deviation difference from the equilibrium. I'm just going to test this out for the next several weeks to see if it helps me, and hopefully if it helps anybody else. Anyone that's been away from Stats 101 for a while, remember that 68% of the time price should remain within 1 SD. 95% of the time price should remain inside 2 SD. Migrating more than 50% of the way or breaking the 3rd SD will signal/confirm a trend change as it only occurs 0.03% of the time.
Last week we had a significant breach to the upside of the Expected Move. This is a new shift from the previous several weeks where price had stayed inside of the Expected Moves. To me, this says that the options marketplace 1. Got it wrong, and 2. That this next week is less reliable. There's several targets that I find noteworthy to the upside - The Gravity Point at $2,811 coincides with this week's Expected Move. This also may run into the +1 SD.
Please Comment on posts if you have something to say. I'm very open to different perspectives or general comments and it actually helps me quite a bit in determining the value I'm bringing to the community. Liking the post also gives me feedback if you don't have anything to say. Right now I'm averaging about 2 Comments a week and about 5 Likes. I want watching my technical analysis to be like watching Lionel Messi play soccer. I seldom expect any sort of attention and that's not my goal here either, rather I'd like to add another individual or two to my team.
This move is reminiscent of early January 2018. A relentless move to the upside. However, in this move in 2019 has been even more of a relentless move. We're looking at a marketplace that has rallied from $2,350 to $2,750 in about a month and a half. About +15%. People get into the party late. This party has already happened.
If you're already invested / still invested - There's no reason to get out. Be on guard.
If you're looking to get in this long - You missed the party. You're going to get burned
If you're looking to get in this short - You're fighting the weight of the evidence. You're going to get burned
Goodluck next week Gentlemen
- RH
Last Week's Post
Note
I'll adjust the regression trend week-to-week to incorporate the price movement.Unless we break the 3 SD trend, I'll keep the uptrend.
If we break the 3 SD trend, we'll change the trend direction.
Do we like the new addition? Does it clog up the chart? Or is it helpful?
Note
Update: $2,811 Gravity Point has been hit! Stay Tuned
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