8/15 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading Plan
Recap
As predicted, we saw a push to 4515 major resistance followed by a dip in the ES. This was no surprise as ES remained stuck in a 1.5 week bi-directional range, the largest of its type since May 2023, and December 2022 before that. Late in the day, we finally broke the range down.
Premarket
🌏 Asia: Mixed
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Down
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Up slightly
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Down
World Headlines
Key Structures
We remain in an extremely choppy range between 4515 and 4459. This level was a major, multi-month trendline and after a full day of chop, it finally cracked. This is the most significant technical breakdown in many months. ES has now been red for an incredible 9 of the last 11 days. The core structure remains a declining channel in white - extending from the July 27th high. Support tomorrow is now 4454, and resistance will be 4562.
Support Levels
4454 (major), 4448, 4438, 4430 (major), 4423, 4416, 4400-4405 (major), 4395 (major), 4382, 4368, 4350, 4339 (major), 4327, 4312-15, 4306 (major).
Resistance Levels
4461 (major), 4468, 4474, 4487-90 (major), 4505-08 (major), 4522 (major), 4534, 4545-50 (major), 4562 (major), 4568, 4579, 4591, 4597 (major), 4608 (major), 4621, 4634, 4650-52 (major), 4660, 4672, 4680, 4692-95 (major), 4705-4710 (major).
Trading Plan
Bears control until we can reclaim the area we broke down today, which is roughly 4461 now. I would be looking to trade the reclaim of this zone. If we can reclaim that white channel at 4461ish now, it will provoke a violent short squeeze and possible multi-week/month low. This would probably see a push back to 4505, dip, then onto 4560s. On the bearish side, bears control under 4461-68 zone now. Generally the bearish path here would have 4400 as a magnet with level to level bounces on the way down.
Wrap Up
Bears made a play for it today by cracking the 4461 level, and the coming hours will be key to see if its a real or failed breakdown. I will react accordingly. My loose lean is we can make our way to 4438, perhaps 4430 then try a larger bounce there. If 4461-68 reclaims, bottom is probably in.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
As predicted, we saw a push to 4515 major resistance followed by a dip in the ES. This was no surprise as ES remained stuck in a 1.5 week bi-directional range, the largest of its type since May 2023, and December 2022 before that. Late in the day, we finally broke the range down.
Premarket
🌏 Asia: Mixed
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Down
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Up slightly
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Down
World Headlines
- Chinese central bank cuts interest rates in surprise move on more weak economic data.
- Michael Bury spooks investors with new big short. 13F filing shows he bought 1.6B of puts on SPY and QQQ.
- Fitch analyst warns of coming US banking downgrade.
Key Structures
We remain in an extremely choppy range between 4515 and 4459. This level was a major, multi-month trendline and after a full day of chop, it finally cracked. This is the most significant technical breakdown in many months. ES has now been red for an incredible 9 of the last 11 days. The core structure remains a declining channel in white - extending from the July 27th high. Support tomorrow is now 4454, and resistance will be 4562.
Support Levels
4454 (major), 4448, 4438, 4430 (major), 4423, 4416, 4400-4405 (major), 4395 (major), 4382, 4368, 4350, 4339 (major), 4327, 4312-15, 4306 (major).
Resistance Levels
4461 (major), 4468, 4474, 4487-90 (major), 4505-08 (major), 4522 (major), 4534, 4545-50 (major), 4562 (major), 4568, 4579, 4591, 4597 (major), 4608 (major), 4621, 4634, 4650-52 (major), 4660, 4672, 4680, 4692-95 (major), 4705-4710 (major).
Trading Plan
Bears control until we can reclaim the area we broke down today, which is roughly 4461 now. I would be looking to trade the reclaim of this zone. If we can reclaim that white channel at 4461ish now, it will provoke a violent short squeeze and possible multi-week/month low. This would probably see a push back to 4505, dip, then onto 4560s. On the bearish side, bears control under 4461-68 zone now. Generally the bearish path here would have 4400 as a magnet with level to level bounces on the way down.
Wrap Up
Bears made a play for it today by cracking the 4461 level, and the coming hours will be key to see if its a real or failed breakdown. I will react accordingly. My loose lean is we can make our way to 4438, perhaps 4430 then try a larger bounce there. If 4461-68 reclaims, bottom is probably in.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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