ES1!: Wedge Wedge Wedge for potential -10%
Right, I have articulated previously on how I feel fundamentally about S&P500 earnings growth and think the anti-trade rhetoric is not going away till Nov mid-terms. ES1! is trading at the top of a mini-wedge tucked within a medium term wedge. Drawing on my Dr Suess instincts to try to explain this:
Wedge 1 is mini wedge which I believe is a continuation pattern from the short-term peak on 14 June
Wedge 2 is the medium term wedge which I believe is a continuation pattern from the Jan - Feb correction
If you recall, the Jan - Feb correction represents a trend line break of the seemingly improbable Fibo-busting 2-yr bull run from Feb'16.
So a breakdown from Wedge 1 will give us a -2% downside target to 2660 which happens to the the lower boundary of Wedge 2.
A breakdown from Wedge 2 will give us a -10% downside target to 2440/60 which happens to be the 38.2% retracement of the Feb'16 uptrend.
Follow me so far?
This reinforced the signal from my UST/SPX relative return model which is in deep buy territory for UST, hence my earlier calls to buy TY1!, TLT and did I talk about T US? Hang on to your breeches!
Wedge 1 is mini wedge which I believe is a continuation pattern from the short-term peak on 14 June
Wedge 2 is the medium term wedge which I believe is a continuation pattern from the Jan - Feb correction
If you recall, the Jan - Feb correction represents a trend line break of the seemingly improbable Fibo-busting 2-yr bull run from Feb'16.
So a breakdown from Wedge 1 will give us a -2% downside target to 2660 which happens to the the lower boundary of Wedge 2.
A breakdown from Wedge 2 will give us a -10% downside target to 2440/60 which happens to be the 38.2% retracement of the Feb'16 uptrend.
Follow me so far?
This reinforced the signal from my UST/SPX relative return model which is in deep buy territory for UST, hence my earlier calls to buy TY1!, TLT and did I talk about T US? Hang on to your breeches!
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