#ES1! Daily Trade Plan with Levels 06.17.22
Updated
Yday we got our downside move to play out, we found buyers below our Key Level of 3671.75-3665.75 and got a push above it, in Globex so far we tested the level and were unable to break it which meant we are out of supply for time being and rotation back towards the upper levels. Currently Globex inventory is 100% long from our close, we are inside ydays range and just hanging out here at the High of yday and our current Key Resistance of 3714.75-3709.75. Today is Friday, we had eventful week and options expire today so it will be very tricky to trade, Fridays are for protecting capital made during the week and not get aggressive for me. Previous day high and T+2 Low will be important resistance areas for me today in order to get any continuation higher we would need to accept in T+2 that would tell us we have no margin calls or outside selling for now. If we fail to do that and start coming down then we can always test Previous day Low and lower levels if order flow permits. For now we have support over Key Resistance and shorts trapped below us from yday who will be the buyers, might see a balanced day as well.
-- On the Upside continuing to hold over 3686.75-3683.75 and 3698.50-3695.50 is a sign of strength but we are right under Key Resistance for me I would like to see us take that out and show us that it will hold in order to get
continuation higher and next Key area to watch for continuation is 3728.75-3725.25 which would be our T+2 low for today, if both of those get taken out then we could see a trip back up to 3747.50-3444.75 and possibly next Key
Resistance at 3764.75-3760.50 and maybe even 3780.50-3776.75 area which would be our T+2 Half Back.
-- On the Downside if we fail to get over Key Resistance and hold above then we have a lot of supply built up here in Globex, if we fail and start coming down we have 3698.50-3695.50 and 3686.75-3673.75 where we will want to
monitor for breaks and continuation in order to get further downside, Key Support is at 3671.75-3665.75 if we do find ourselves back under it then lower levels and Prev day low is in reach at 3655.25-3650.75, 3638.25-3634.25 and
next Key Support at 3619.50-3613.25
** Manage expectations today and get ready for it to be choppy unless we get a clear move out.
-- On the Upside continuing to hold over 3686.75-3683.75 and 3698.50-3695.50 is a sign of strength but we are right under Key Resistance for me I would like to see us take that out and show us that it will hold in order to get
continuation higher and next Key area to watch for continuation is 3728.75-3725.25 which would be our T+2 low for today, if both of those get taken out then we could see a trip back up to 3747.50-3444.75 and possibly next Key
Resistance at 3764.75-3760.50 and maybe even 3780.50-3776.75 area which would be our T+2 Half Back.
-- On the Downside if we fail to get over Key Resistance and hold above then we have a lot of supply built up here in Globex, if we fail and start coming down we have 3698.50-3695.50 and 3686.75-3673.75 where we will want to
monitor for breaks and continuation in order to get further downside, Key Support is at 3671.75-3665.75 if we do find ourselves back under it then lower levels and Prev day low is in reach at 3655.25-3650.75, 3638.25-3634.25 and
next Key Support at 3619.50-3613.25
** Manage expectations today and get ready for it to be choppy unless we get a clear move out.
Comment
Prev day High was our KEY spot today which so happened to line up with Key Resistance :) We corrected Globex inventory before the open down exactly to our Key Support areas where we found response before the open which drove us back to Prev day high. We failed to take it and that was our downside plan right there, Failure to take Key Resistance and Prev day high gives us high probability of reversal down to next Key Support this time around we were coming down with more volume from all the chasers who thought we will come out and head for the Gap fill and higher, we broke Key Support and now we are testing our lower levels as noted above. I took a few too many stop outs before the move at 8:40 but ended up catching the downside from there still, a bounce from Key Support at open and then sized down and caught 2 on the way down after failing at Prev Day high, I did not hold for the whole trade as I was happy with profits and will call it a day for today.Comment
So far broke Prev Day Low but failed to reach/break the level by it which is 3638.25-3634.25 that we wanted to see break for continuation which tells me that we might have a balanced day between Prev Day High and Prev Day Low as we obviously have supply above and strong buying below, not saying we can go and take it lower but most likely we will close within Prev Day range as we are at a location on bigger time frame where we can find support as mentioned this week , it might not be for long but if we hold then we can see gap fills and higher areas tested next week. Unless we break the highs and lows today and accept over/under.
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