SPX small relief rally then lower
Updated
This is the futures chart. I'm using it because it lines up well with the pitchfork fibs.
Overall, it still looks like we need to complete the 4th wave today (maybe into tomorrow) before the final wave down. Keep in mind the 100ma is my target but we may fall short as the weekly 18 is at 3874 currently.
Many are expecting a bounce to 3900 at least, and then a sell into the abyss. This is why having the minor bounce and then a 5th wave down, and then a bigger rally in early January makes sense to me.
Daily Chart with potential MA targets if they can get above 3900
Overall, it still looks like we need to complete the 4th wave today (maybe into tomorrow) before the final wave down. Keep in mind the 100ma is my target but we may fall short as the weekly 18 is at 3874 currently.
Many are expecting a bounce to 3900 at least, and then a sell into the abyss. This is why having the minor bounce and then a 5th wave down, and then a bigger rally in early January makes sense to me.
Daily Chart with potential MA targets if they can get above 3900
Comment
after a bear trap this morning, this looks to be playing out. Noone can state for sure we will have another leg down, but I believe this ultimately will fail and we'll go lower over the holidays. Comment
there a structure I'm watching for a potential short opp - red line. Comment
starting to look like a more complex correction. Sell off into close and then gap higher is looking like the play. Rally into Thursday until economic numbers at 8:30... Comment
futures have reached the 18ma. If this is a 4th wave with a 5th lower coming, we should see some rejection around here - maybe a bit higher first...Comment
a lot of people expecting 3900+, but I think we fail after an open rally. Structure on futures shown. Might be wrong, but this is what I'm thinking. Comment
another option for the short term structure is this - Comment
Comment
may be further upside, maybe not. Many are convinced there will be more upside, so there's that. SPY closed below the daily 50ma and fib of pitchfork. It closed slightly above the weekly 18, but the week still has 2 days left. Comment
solid rejection at 50ma on futures this morning, any bounce is a short opportunity. It shouldn't get over the last high. Comment
Might be a gap and go day. With the optimism for higher prices yesterday I would think bears don't want to give bulls much of a chance to get out. Trapped bulls may sell into capitulation and then we bounce harder larger into January....Comment
First wave may be done, fib line may get a bounce Comment
if this is a bear flag, 372 is the target and there will be minimal bounces Comment
straight line down, but not overly fast Comment
spy already to 376 which is equal to wave 1 - that was fast. Many are trapped. Taking some more off the table Comment
Hourly bull divergences building here, It's a falling knife but I'm adding some long positions, very small. Comment
daily BB at 375, should find some support near there, we're 60 cents awayComment
possibly one more low tomorrow, not really sure if this is correct. Comment
looks like santa came already Comment
looks like a reversal on daily, but look at the daily ma cluster above.... Comment
spinning top on spy, while it does look like a reversal, there's a potential that we are in an ending diagonal, so if tomorrow we sell more, I expect we could make a very choppy bottom before the main reversal. Just be cautious before going "all in". I'm sure many are thinking this is the bottom, I can't tell just yet. Comment
futures are at the pitchfork fib no decision made - probably after 830 there will be Comment
possible move on futures is an abc, stopped at .618 fib for now. Open will tell more....Comment
they stopped the pump on futures at the pitchfork fib. Needs to get over that to rally, otherwise more downside likely. 
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