#ES_F Thursday 1.26.23 Overview
Updated
Review: Last night Globex opened and drove under 4030-25 trapping supply over which started our move overnight move. Yesterday we had signs that inventory is still low and someone is buying, Globex was used to drop the bid under Previous day low which helped get us under 94-89 and our T2 Low Support which made more people sell out into the buying under 3976-71. Once selling has stopped the inventory was short and our supply was back over 4030-25, today showed us that there is still size covering and wanting that supply. 4076-71 was look below and fail, once we got back over T2 Low and 3994-89 position was below us.
Overview: Interested to see what we will do in Globex tonight, we still have supply that is coming out from above this 4042 area and now our buyers are under 4025 and under 4012-08. If we break under 4030-25 there might be a chance to visit 4012-08 or close to it, if we wont see a full test or break under it that will show strength going into RTH but it might be a tricky day as we might be trying to get as many sellers shaken out before making another run at bigger Supply area. as long as we are holding over 4000-4012 area there is a good chance to make another attempt higher to 4046-42 // 4061-56 which would be our T2 High and maybe get close to 4084-77. Ideally we don't go there tonight first but instead come down lower and consolidate. If we do get over 4061 at whatever point that is not the best area to add because that is an area of bigger supply and things can come to an end quick. Area to be careful at.
If we do break under 4012-08 - 4000 those will be first red flags and break and hold under 95-89 would be a big warning might change things to the downside pretty quick.
Levels to Watch: 3994-89 // 4012-08 // 4035-25 // 4046-42 // 4061-56 // 408477
Overview: Interested to see what we will do in Globex tonight, we still have supply that is coming out from above this 4042 area and now our buyers are under 4025 and under 4012-08. If we break under 4030-25 there might be a chance to visit 4012-08 or close to it, if we wont see a full test or break under it that will show strength going into RTH but it might be a tricky day as we might be trying to get as many sellers shaken out before making another run at bigger Supply area. as long as we are holding over 4000-4012 area there is a good chance to make another attempt higher to 4046-42 // 4061-56 which would be our T2 High and maybe get close to 4084-77. Ideally we don't go there tonight first but instead come down lower and consolidate. If we do get over 4061 at whatever point that is not the best area to add because that is an area of bigger supply and things can come to an end quick. Area to be careful at.
If we do break under 4012-08 - 4000 those will be first red flags and break and hold under 95-89 would be a big warning might change things to the downside pretty quick.
Levels to Watch: 3994-89 // 4012-08 // 4035-25 // 4046-42 // 4061-56 // 408477
Note
Interesting Globex, we didn't have enough supply to even get to 4030-25 and held above it which tells us they go all the supply for now. They are running the stops over 46-42 and moving the market pre data, depending what they do at 830 today but looks like they still need to grab a lot of supply above so wont be surprised to see a move above 4084-77 maybe up to 4100 and look above if enough juice, but remember areas above 4060 - 4080 - 4100 are bigger supply areas and we have to see how long we will stay up in those areasNote
One clue for this move pre market was that we opened and drove away from 30-25 area and can see we were not able to get back into it with that TPOC from Monday/Tuesday becoming our Support. When we got over 42-46 that gave us the stop run. Lets see what they do on dataNote
Data flush found buyers under 46-42 I think that will be our area to watch today, we should possibly see a push over 61-56 at some point in RTHNote
If RTH does not give any pull back and drives over 61-56 we are looking for 84-77 and we get over 84-77 must be careful with longs over that area because if we visit that with a drive from the open depends how high it will go then there will be a good chance to take most of it back towards the end of the day and close below 84.Note
looks like move over 61-56 was a stop run if we dont have anymore buying to get over the high and get under this level id watch the downside and see how much supply we haveNote
They used globex to get price over 46 then ran the stops over 61 and sold position into the buying and dropped the bid, if we cant get back over 46 a big downside can play out, if this holds we could rotate but for now it was a liquidity event to sell intoNote
If cant break 4030-25 that is all the downside and we might have just flushed a big seller out and will attempt another right higher, have to watch it level by levelNote
Get back over 46 and it was a flush to get seller out and gather more supply, can attempt at the high again id watch 4084-77 to hitNote
Looks like supply in hand, watch over 61-56 again to 84-77 maybe 4100 areaNote
If the move over 61 happens again it might take some time, we are holding over Prev Day High which is providing support and building up short stops above us, if we stay under 61 but over 40 we will at some point might want to fill those stops which will provide the push higher, its a big outside supply area so we might want to do it towards the middle or the end of the dayNote
Seems today we might stay in this 4061-4025 balance, we might be waiting for data tomorrow to make that run, upside move for today most likely done as this was the target for a few days we were trying to push over 61 so for today that is done, we have to see how we close today to see if we can head for next target tomorrowNote
We now have supply over 46-42 again which will now be our resistance for today and 30-25 support, could stay in this area for a bitNote
They saved the fireworks until end of day but look what a grind that was over 61, big supply area, 61-56 level to watch going forward
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