SP - TLT...Let's Watch
Updated
Interesting setups...TBD
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Well we did get selling the dip...and we know where the Bears are @ 3372...so the Bulls make their stand at 3375 and change....Should be a Very Interesting FookinFriday as we go into the 3-day weekend...Cheers!Note
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AM Futures...we will see what holds or fades??? Fed like we knew they would announced they would start "Rolling Back Repos"...as reported by many...at every auction the "Juice Spikes" are the driving factor even if perception, doesn't really matter...steroids are steroids + delayed KungFuVirus on China Manufacturing (Don't worry about the media/narrative....just look up any number of city cams, when they are bustling with people again then things are getting back to normal...currently they are All Empty!2nd+3rd QTR effects on earnings)...Let's watch the ShitShow...have a Great 3-day weekend...I am, plenty of relaxation and HappyHour! Cheers
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Best Market Assessment out there...finomgroup.com/state-of-the-market-2-13-2020/
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Seth Golden on above assessment...When the month of February ends with SPX trailing 12 month returns >/=20%, the rest of the year from Feb’s close has finished positive 15 of 17 for average returns of 9.37%.
Reminder 1: There’s an eternity left in the month of February
Reminder 2: Returns are expected, but risk is guaranteed. This table predicts nothing. Have a smart plan, stick to said smart plan, win.
***Process and Managing your Trade(s)...Situational Awareness w/ BS sensors ON...Good Luck!
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Let's see when they cross again...
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Seth Goldensethcl
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7m
Our weekly video analysis: Dive into breadth, technicals, WHO IS BUYING, economic data, coronavirus, outlook and more...
State of the Market: 2/13/2020 - Finom Group
Welcome to this week’s State of the Markets with Wayne Nelson and Seth Golden. Please click the following link to review the SOTM video. Two weeks ago we believed a corrective period would commence...
finomgroup.com
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AmericaToday's US data is likely to be a case of more of the same. The US consumer slowed in Q4 19, and the January retail sales report is likely to show it remained subdued at the start of the year. The headline is expected to match the 0.3% rise posted in December, while the GDP components may slow to 0.3% from 0.5%. Income, the main fuel of consumption, is softening. The increase in real average hourly earnings (0.6% year-over-year) appears to translate into fewer hours, and thus average real weekly earnings were unchanged last month. Meanwhile, the slump in the industrial sector likely continued. January's industrial output is expected to have fallen for the fourth time in the past five months. Manufacturing production may have contracted. Capacity utilization peaked in November 2016, near 79.6. It has been trending lower and probably slipped below 77%.
The Federal Reserve is making a strong statement. The market has been abuzz about the fact that the last three term repos were oversubscribed. Yesterday, it announced that starting next week, it was cutting the amount it would offer by $5 bln to $25 bln. It preannounced it would taper by another $5 bln in early March. It would only make sense to do this if it concluded that the increased demand for the term repo reflected banks being drawn to the cheapness of funds than an underlying problem.
--Mark to Market
marctomarket.com/2020/02/investors-continue-to-look-past.html
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We in the strategy group continue to lean reflationary (i.e. higher long-dated rates because of a risk-on tone in the near term).e-markets.nordea.com/
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above Nordea link....FOMC minutes from the January meeting are released in the middle of the week, Wednesday 19 February. If the Fed were to shift focus from “sustaining the expansion” to care about frothy asset prices, we could be in for a wild ride, so that’s something game-changey to look for (though they won’t).
We are also on the look for discussions on US liquidity, especially after Fed Quarles recent speech in which he outlined measures to address dollar scarcity via regulatory changes, for instance changing surcharge calculations for systematically important banks. If implemented, this might lessen the often present “USD scarcity” around year-ends, with implications for Libor-OIS spreads (negative) as well as for Nibor and Stibor. Elsewhere, we note the latest take-up numbers from term repos. The oversubscribed facility suggests the Fed won’t be in a hurry to implement further “tapering”. This may be good news for the size of the Fed’s balance sheet, as well as for US liquidity for the near term.
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“There is no training — classroom or otherwise — that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it’s the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market.” -- Paul Tudor JonesNote
Long Bond (TLT): bullish TRENDUS Dollar (UUP): bullish TREND
S&P 500 (UUP): bullish TREND
Low Beta (SPLV): bullish TREND
Tech (XLK): bullish TREND
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Value-oriented investors tend to buy too early in the bottoming process of bear markets, insomuch that short-sellers tend to get their faces ripped off during the topping process of bull markets.Note
All told, there is a massive difference between Late-Cycle economic and market dynamics and End-Of-Cycle economic and market dynamics. Moreover, any investor that fails to appropriately contextualize these disparate regimes will likely fail to risk manage the “last third” of the move accordingly.See you @ 3-4PM...Cheers
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Forgot https://one..https://twitter.com/hedgopia/status/1228300594013560832?s=20
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